Archives January 2021

US FP UNDER JOE BIDEN

Writer: Hendra Manurung is currently pursuing a doctoral degree in international relations at Padjadjaran University, Bandung  

The US foreign policy is much likely to change under the leadership of President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (Joe Biden) with Vice President Kamala Harris, 2020-2024. It is certainly will be much different from the previous US foreign policy under the administration of President Donald Trump, 2016-2020.

Post-Cold War, the US has often been criticized for being too ambitious to export democracy around the world. Henry Kissinger in his book, Diplomacy (1994) assesses the ambitious US foreign policy upholding the values of the national interest. After World War II, the US began exporting liberal democracy and global capitalism, not always doing well, but succeeding in West Germany, Japan, Indonesia, India, South Korea, and Taiwan, but failing in Cuba, Haiti, Somalia, and Vietnam.

US power is no longer in military might. Democracy and freedom cannot be enforced. The soft power approach needs to be put forward in spreading democratic values and the universality of humanity. President Biden needs to bring the US back into the international system, restoring the world’s expectation in democratic principles, human rights, and the environment.

In the near future, the international community will see a real change in Washington D.C.’s foreign policy, as President Joe Biden’s priority is to control the COVID-19 pandemic and restore domestic economic growth. On various regional issues, in several situations and scenarios, the US Police will certainly refer to and emphasize national interests. Obviously, this is a common principle in the foreign policy of a large country.

Therefore, the US administration under Joe Biden will redefine the strategic importance of Washington D.C.’s policies on the international stage, from the Middle East to the Asia Pacific region. In the short term, there are probably two priorities that will be taken. The first priority is to revive the image of the United States which fell, due to Donald Trump’s ambiguity which has created a bad image for the US democratization process. The second priority is to rebuild alliances with US allies in Europe and East Asia.

Biden’s subtle, ethical and integrity personality and personality are clearly different from Trump’s. Over the next four years, this will be confirmed through different approaches to foreign policymaking and implementation. Trump is known as a talkative president who is not like politicians in general. It is difficult to be called a world leader, just speaking, likes to have many enemies, is inconsistent, has no commitment, and does not have a clear vision for the future of the US.

From 2016 to 2020, it is this Trump personality that has been the foundation of US policy. Joe Biden’s victory is seen by most US allies as a release from the hostage situation. For four years, the US was threatened, humiliated, troubled by tariff wars and unilateralism decision.

During his time in office, Donald Trump has publicly criticized, questioned, and downplayed the importance of alliances with old allies, including NATO, Germany, South Korea, and Japan. Trump also withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris climate accord, the World Health Organization, and various other Presbyterian Nations bodies. As a result, the US was isolated internationally, and China took over the international role of the superpower from the African continent to Latin America.

The US policy of restoring alliances with allied countries is important as a strategy to improve international relations which are increasingly sinking in the international arena. This is the toughest challenge amid other issues, such as global climate change and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic which requires synergic, strategic, and sustainable international cooperation and coordination.

President Biden promised something for the return of international influence that was lost in the Trump era, by restoring the traditional role of the US in the international system, such as predictability, international stability, mutual respect among allied countries, and emphasizing more dialogue, consultation, and prioritizing compromise.

At present, it is not easy for Joe Biden. Over the past 4 years, Trump has screwed up the world superpower policy. The world is also experiencing changes related to the global pandemic, which changes the US perspective on the world and vice versa. Biden figure is known as a pacifist and puts forward multiculturalists. These two personality traits will become the basis for the US implementation on global politics, apart from being non-insistent, not impulsive, and non-aggressive. Biden is a conciliatory extravert, a person who has a certain personality, a strong motive for closer affiliation, and always pushes for an agreement rather than a deadlock.

Typical leadership with a personality profile like this tends to describe an interpersonal, flexible, compromise, multiculturalist leadership style, and a priority for solid teamwork. Biden has shown a multiculturalist approach by appointing Kamala Harris as vice president. Harris is not only a person of color but the daughter of immigrant parents, her mother of Indian descent, and her father of Jamaican descent.

Biden’s policies and approach are much more different from Trump’s, who always prioritizes white supremacist rhetoric, discriminatory white supremacist rhetoric.

Biden’s two approaches will be assessed whether applicable and how the strategy will be implemented, particularly regarding the future of US-China relations, which during Trump’s leadership has always been complicated and tricky competition. US interests have always been a priority, including in cooperating with Beijing, for example regarding global climate change and the possession of Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons.

Biden is also likely to keep many measures Trump put in place restricting technology exports to some of China’s biggest companies. Not to mention the punitive tariffs on some US$500 billion worth of Chinese goods (bloomberg.com, Jan. 25, 2021). Meanwhile, Kremlin also wants to build better relations with President Biden, for example by trying to reduce Iran’s influence in Syria.

Additionally, these two approaches are likely to be the main uniqueness of US foreign policy in the Biden era to be implemented in the Middle East. In the Trump period, the Middle East region was a hotspot for US policy. At least, Trump has taken a decision with two significant changes, namely 1) ending the nuclear deal with Iran (The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May 2018 by leaving European allied. Tehran says Iran will no longer limit itself to the restrictions contained in the deal.

The existence of an official Iranian statement illustrates how the US cannot walk alone without the continuous support and cooperation of its European allies to return to the JCPOA immediately.

Trump also supports the existence of Israel and the expansion of Saudi Arabia’s influence in the region, whose aim is to isolate Iran’s role in the Middle East; 2) Trump carries out a pro-Israel policy, playing an important role in building relations between Israel and Arab countries (the Abraham Accord, which underlies the creation of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates), moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2017. The decision is taken Trump causes world concern.

Trump’s policy is to alienate the peace process in the Middle East, by supporting Israel and neglecting Palestine.

Indonesia and the international community will witness what major changes President Joe Biden will take regarding the implementation of US foreign policy in various regions, apart from Europe (European Union, NATO, Russia); The Middle East; Southeast Asia; and East Asia (China and North Korea).

US strategic decisions under President Biden’s administration will certainly contribute to the world and regional peace.

FRANCE & CHARTER OF PRINCIPLES
https://www.bbc.com

Writer: Hendra Manurung, is currently a doctoral candidate in international relations at Padjadjaran University, Bandung, West Java

The French government has agreed with Muslim organizations in the country regarding the charter of principles governing the synergistic relationship between the Muslim community and state.

The National Council of Imams finally sees the light of day. On January 17, 2021, after six weeks of negotiations and three weeks of the open crisis, the nine federations making up the French Council of Muslim Worship (CFCM) agreed on the text of a Charter of Principles (Lemonde.fr, January 17, 2021). It should serve as a reference for a National Council of Imams (CNI), an emanation of the CFCM, the principle of which was enacted in November 2020. This Council is supposed to award certifications to ministers of the Muslim faith who request them.

The charter of principles agreed and signed by President of the French Muslim Faith Council, Mohammed Moussaoui witnessed by French President, Emmanuel Macron, at the Elysee Palace, Paris on January 18, 2021. The signing was carried out after a day earlier Mussaoui agreed on the points of the charter issue with the Minister of Home Affairs, Gerald Darmain.

Macron has firmly defended French secularism following the latest attacks, including the beheading of a teacher who displayed a caricature of the Prophet Muhammad during a class discussion in October 2020, as he also announced new steps to tackle what he called Islamic separatism in France (bbc.com). Previously, Samuel Paty, a teacher who was beheaded outside his school, was the target of an online hate attack before his death on October 16, 2020.

Understanding religion requires interpretation and appreciation, not only as an aspiration that creates a narrow, symbolic, and formalistic interpretation of religion. Faith in religion should be an inspiration.

Max Weber reveals in his book, The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism (2005), which is pioneering research and new approach in the 20th century, regarding the creative role of religion in social change and cultural formation. Cultural change occurs when humans apply reason in social life. It is called rationalization, which ultimately leads society to dominate technology and bureaucracy as well as a pragmatic orientation and efficiency. The tendency towards rationalization grew and was driven by religion itself. This rationalization led to the elimination of religion from culture and society and the creation of a secular world. This millennium era has had a major influence on information technology literate societies in giving birth to new public civilizations.

Religion is an important factor in sustainable social change. It is believed that religion is the source of inspiration for the dynamics of social change, not religion as the affirmation of the structure of civil society. Religion provides a framework of meaning, inspiration to the world and human behavior, a perspective with the meaning of how humans understand the world around them, their activities, living space they are in, the time that governs their lives, and their future, including their death.

Earlier, in November 2020, French President Emmanuel Macron issued an ultimatum to the French Muslim Worship Council (Conseil Français du Culte Musulman), to sign the Republican Values Charter. Through this ultimatum over the next 15 days, the French Muslim Worship Council was asked to sign the agreement. The ultimatum comes amid accusations that Macron’s government is stigmatizing Muslims following three separate terrorist attacks, which the public condemns.

Further, President Emmanuel Marcon also wants the CFCM to declare publicly that Islam is only a religion and not a political movement, in addition to wanting to stop other Muslim countries in the world from helping the Muslim community of France beleaguered by what Paris perceives as foreign interference in domestic affairs.

France’s largest Muslim charity, BarakaCity, has been shut down by the French Interior Minister, Gerald Darmanin, without judicial oversight.

At least, there are 10 main points from the charter of principles. Among them, there is an agreement to reject attempts to utilize Islam for political purposes and emphasize the importance of equality between men and women. The charter also denounces old practices, such as female circumcision, forced marriage, and virginity certificates for brides. It is also stated that no religious belief can be used as an exception to the obligations of citizens.

The charter also states explicitly its rejection of racism and anti-Semitism. It was also stated that mosques in France were not built to spread nationalist speeches defending foreign regimes. According to Moussaoui, the charter affirms the perfect compatibility between Muslim beliefs and the principles of the French Republic, including secularism and the commitment of French Muslims to their citizenship.

It is realized that the agreement on the charter can be an instrument to enter a new chapter of synergy between Muslims in France and the government of that country. Currently, about 4 to 5 million Muslims in France, this is the largest number of Muslims in the Western European region. Their existence and influence are often in the spotlight when cases of radicalism and terrorism emerge on the blue continent. This includes the murder case of a teacher showing cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad in Charlie Hebdo magazine while giving lessons in class in mid-October 2020.

Emmanuel Macron as the leader of a major country in the European Union (EU) attempts his best to find the best solution to the tensions between the government and the French Muslim community. Macron asked Muslim leaders in France to formulate the principles of this relationship. The CFCM has formed nearly 20 years ago as a forum for ongoing dialogue between the Muslim community and the French government, offers principles for this relationship. However, there have been weeks of debate within the CFCM, including on points that have made the three-member federations refuse to sign the charter.

However, the charter is very important as a foundation and guidance in managing equal relations between Muslims and the French state which has been full of tension, suspicion, and prejudice. For Macron’s government, the charter is a kind of clarification of the position of Muslims in France and their commitment to their country, so there is no need to raise suspicions and prejudice against each other. For the CFCM, the charter is also to show how the Muslim community in France can adapt to the principles of statehood in the republic.

The formal adoption of the charter by the CFCM federation paved the way for a massive restructuring of Islam in France, particularly with the creation of the Council National Imams Council which was responsible for labeling imams who practice in the country.

In any sovereign democratic state, the diversity that is rooted in culture can act as a human creative power to transform, develop dynamically and humanely in nation-building, and always open to responding to existing realities. Thus, it is through various dialogues of the values of faith and humanity that the spirit of a new civilized nation should be encouraged by the belief in the existence of God Almighty.

Religion as a source of inspiration is indeed virtual, but it can be a trap because once a human is trapped, he will continue to be anxious and confused about finding and practicing his values. Religion is both transcendent and immanent. Religious principles that legitimize power have been internalized in the human conscience. In fact, the most expected religious social control is how to shape people’s consciences, so that they are courageous and firm in rejecting corruption, persecution, and human rights violations.

In essence, religion must be used as an inspiration in nation-building, not merely as an aspiration.

INDONESIA – EU NICKEL DISPUTE
Source: en.antaranews.com

Writer: Hendra Manurung is currently a doctoral candidate in international relations at Padjadjaran University, Bandung, West Java.

In mid-January 2021, the Indonesian government then formed a panel and strengthened the lobbying strategy that was oriented towards increasing the added value of the nickel user industry in Indonesia and the European Union (EU) simultaneously. This step was taken in response to the EU’s decision to file a dispute with the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding Indonesia’s policy to restrict nickel ore exports. Starting January 1, 2020, the Indonesian government decided to ban the export of nickel with a grade of less than 1.7% (trade.ec.europa.eu). Nickel ore with a concentration lower that 1.7% may only be exported provided that the holder of the production permit has used nickel with such level of concentration in at least 30% of its total input capacity in the purifying facility; and that it has built or is building a purifying facility, whether independently or in cooperation with others.

While the EU industry has reached its lowest level of stainless steel production in 10 years, Indonesia is set to become the second-largest producer in the world after China, fueled by unfair and illegal advantages like the ones challenged in this dispute (eurometal.net, Jan.15, 2021).

The EU considers Indonesian regulations related to the Minerals and Coal Law which makes it difficult for Brussels to be competitive in the steel industry, especially in the management of the stainless steel industry. This EU nickel commodity has a lower productivity value than Indonesia. Thus, the EU considers this will disrupt the energy productivity of the blue continent stainless steel.

Jakarta regrets that Brussels will continue the dispute process. As the largest country in the Southeast Asia region and a country that complies with international law, Indonesia will follow each dispute process according to international rules. Most likely, Indonesia will fight for its rights to international organizations against the EU.

On 22 November 2019, the EU requested consultations with Indonesia pursuant to Articles 1 and 4 of the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU), Article XXII:1 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994 (GATT 1994), and Article 4.1 of the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (ASCM) with regard to various measures concerning certain raw materials necessary for the production of stainless steel, as well as a cross-sectoral import duty exemption scheme conditional upon the use of domestic over imported goods (WT/DS592/1, G/L/1345, G/SCM/D127/1).

The EU launches WTO challenge against Indonesian restrictions on raw materials on November 22, 2019 (trade.ec.europa.eu), as written: ‘Today, the EU has brought a dispute in the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Indonesian export restrictions for raw materials used in the production of stainless steel. These restrictions unfairly limit access of EU producers to raw materials for steel production, notably nickel as well as scraps, coal, and coke, iron ore, and chromium. The EU is also challenging subsidies that encourage the use of local content by Indonesian producers and give preference to domestic over imported goods, which goes against WTO rules’.

Further, the EU’s commitment affirmation decision to resolute and strong enforcement of multilateral and bilateral trade rules where European interests are at stake.

At present, the EU is involved in 42 WTO disputes and 3 disputes under its trade agreements. The disputes brought by the EU have led over the last five years from 2014 to 2019 to the removal of discriminatory taxes, illegal customs duties, or export restrictions in key markets such as Russia, China, the US, and South America, and the reopening of markets worth €10 billion per year.

Over almost three years, Indonesian nickel products have indeed been superior to nickel products from the EU.

Therefore, the EU sued Indonesia to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva, Switzerland, regarding nickel with case number Dispute Settlement 592 (DS 592). The European Union claimed that: 1) the measures restricting the exports of certain raw materials, including those requiring domestic processing requirements, domestic marketing obligations, and export licensing requirements, appear to be inconsistent with Article XI:1 of the GATT 1994; 2) the prohibited subsidy scheme appears to be inconsistent with Article 3.1(b) of the SCM Agreement; and 3) the failure to promptly publish the challenged measures appears to be inconsistent with Article X:1 of the GATT 1994. Also, on 6 December 2019, the US requested to join the consultations.

This is due to the EU’s decision that its nickel productivity is currently being rivaled by Indonesia. Moreover, Indonesian goods will definitely be superior, because the sophisticated technology is high, the factory is new, and also this is part of the government’s commitment and seriousness to creating added value and creating investment in Indonesia.

Thus, the results of Indonesian nickel products such as iron and steel, especially stainless steel are of better quality. This quality improvement is due to the fact that Indonesia’s industrial sector continues to increase the added value of a nickel.

Furthermore, steel is the third-largest export in Indonesia after palm oil and coal. This shows a shared commitment by stakeholders to strengthen the transformation of Indonesia’s industrial sector.

Even though Indonesia was sued by the EU regarding nickel, the Indonesian government through the trade ministry will face the lawsuit and is willing to provide various inputs to the EU in Brussels, so that it can generate high-quality nickel products like Indonesia.

As part of the ongoing collaboration between trading partners, it is clear that Indonesia has no objection to providing input to Europe to be able to create high technology such as stainless steel, and how to create added value from the nickel processing industry.

With the EU’s lawsuit against Indonesia regarding nickel, Indonesia is preparing in the future to face any similar disputes with other countries.

The issue of dispute between Indonesia and the EU regarding nickel is a common problem, and it is likely to happen again and Indonesia is expected to be more sophisticated, better, and more able to serve other countries that may have lagged behind their productivity.

Indonesia as a rule of law and the third-largest democracy in the world will reluctantly serve the demands of the EU. Although, this dispute trade might still continue for a longer time. Even though, it can be resolved by means of the negotiation process.

In the midst of the outbreak of the new COVID-19 variant in early January 2021, Indonesia regrets the EU’s decision, this can actually be discussed at the negotiating table, and Jakarta can send Indonesian experts to Brussels to create added value. Indonesia’s commitment is not only prioritized to create world peace but is also committed to creating the world’s people economic prosperity.

Until January 2021, Indonesia and the EU are having two problems, the first is DS 592 related to the nickel issue, and Indonesia is currently suing the European Union regarding palm oil discrimination through the Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II) with lawsuit number DS 593.

Indonesia is of the view that in this global competition, effectiveness, efficiency, and productivity are good ones and need to be continued.

Thus, Indonesia and the EU need to sit together to discuss the ongoing trade agreement negotiations to help the productivity of European products, whether in vegetable oil or stainless steel.

Indonesia is definitely ready to help the EU with the nickel issue, and coordinate with the minister of industry to send experts from Indonesia.

As is well known, Indonesia is the second steel commodity producer in the world after China.

Jakarta is still targeting real exports of goods and services to grow by 4.2 percent. Especially for non-oil and gas exports, it is targeted to grow by 6.3 percent. Additionally, it also targets to agree on 25 international agreements, either the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) or Free Trade Agreement (FTA), or the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).

Meanwhile, domestically, it is necessary to encourage and strengthen a conducive business climate, especially in helping business actors to continue working, especially in the midst of this pandemic so that the national economy and increased economic growth can continue to move.

At least, there are 6 (six) foreign trade strategies in 2021 (kemendag.go.id), namely: First, non-traditional markets, the ministry of trade will seek and take advantage of opportunities in non-traditional countries as an alternative to export markets; Second, is the settlement of Trade Agreements. It is targeted that 25 international trade agreements will soon be completed, apart from conducting international trade negotiations, one of which is with non-traditional countries; Third, related to Expo Dubai and Trade Expo Indonesia (TEI), trade promotion at home and abroad, such as participation in Expo 2020 Dubai and Trade Expo Indonesia 2021 in Indonesia. It is related to trade missions. It still needs to strengthening and boosting of trade missions covering business forums, business matching, and business dialogue; Fourth, the use of digital technology will be a solution in the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic with limited mobility between countries; Fifth, ensuring the flow of incoming goods, especially raw and auxiliary materials because these goods will later be processed into export goods; Sixth is related to licensing by providing legal certainty and the process for exporters and importers in carrying out-licensing arrangements.

Indonesia’s measures nullify or impair the benefits accruing to the EU, directly or indirectly, under the covered agreements. The EU asks that this request for the establishment of a panel be placed on the agenda for the meeting of the Dispute Settlement Body to be held on 25 January 2021 (trade.ec.europa.eu).

Sooner or later, the Indonesian Ministry of trade needs to prepare reliable negotiators to resolve legal case issues related to the European Union’s demands for nickel disputes to the WTO.

INDONESIA & CHINA FM VISITS TO SE ASIA
Wang Yi meets President Joko Widodo (http://indonesian.cri.cn, 15/1.2021)

Writer: Hendra Manurung is currently a doctorate candidate in international relations at Padjadjaran University, Bandung, West Java

After World War II (1945-1990) until the current digital revolution 4.0, the international community experienced the Pax Americana momentum. A period of global development and international peace has taken shape, with the United States as a superpower and the international political system leading to unipolar and arrogance of interests alone.

During Wang Yi’s visit to Indonesia on January 13, 2021 (kemlu.go.id, 14/1/2021), 5 points of understanding were reached, namely 1) coping with the pandemic, 2) deepening pragmatic cooperation in various fields, 3) encouraging regional cooperation in East Asia, 4) maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea, and 5) together to maintain and encourage multilateralism.

So far, Indonesia and China have discussed and exchanged ideas about the global situation, particularly in facing the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. Regarding the issue of health cooperation, the Indonesian government emphasized the importance of the sustainability of regional health cooperation. Especially in the framework of ASEAN cooperation as a follow-up to China’s various commitments in handling the global pandemic, such as the US$ 5 million commitment to support the Public Health Cooperation Initiative: Program on Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capacity or PROMPT, and a US$ 1 million commitment to the ASEAN COVID-19 Response Fund.

Since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, Indonesia and China have collaborated in health cooperation both to provide diagnostic, therapeutic, and vaccine tools. In addition, the two countries are also committed to increasing the independence of the drug industry, medicinal raw materials, and medical devices in Indonesia.

In the midst of a pandemic and a sluggish global economic situation, Indonesia’s exports to China in 2020 increased by 10.96 percent. One of the products that experienced a significant increase was steel exports to China, which was the result of the downstream industrial process in Indonesia.

Therefore, in order to achieve balanced and mutually beneficial trade, Indonesia underlines the importance of joint efforts to overcome various obstacles in bilateral trade, in particular, to expand and open up Chinese market access for Indonesia’s leading exports such as palm oil, fishery products, tropical fruit, and swallow’s nest.

Both countries agreed to encourage boosted foreign investment and mutual cooperation in infrastructure development through partnerships that are quality, environmentally friendly, and which can absorb Indonesian workers.

Jakarta appreciates Beijing for the cooperation in handling problems of Indonesian crew members working on Chinese-flagged ships, including support for the return of Indonesian crew members from November to December 2020. In addition, it also encourages solutions for the return of stranded crew members, settlement of labor rights, and improvement of conditions, safe and conducive work, and law enforcement implementation through mutual legal assistance.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Russia (2018) (http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57207)

On the other side, regarding regional and global cooperation, it is necessary to implement the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), as well as Indonesia’s determination to continue to maintain ASEAN centrality in its implementation. It is very important to maintain stability and peace in the region, to keep the South China Sea as a peaceful and stable sea. All countries need to respect and implement international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS.

While in Indonesia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has also reviewed one of the synergy implementation projects of the Indonesia Global Maritime Fulcrum and the China Belt and Road Initiative and a meeting with the Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment in Lake Toba, North Sumatra, as well as carrying out a courtesy visit to President Joko Widodo.

Hence, it needs to be a shared priority of China and Indonesia are both large developing countries and important new economic powers, where strengthening cooperation between the two countries has strategic significance and global influence continuously (http://indonesian.cri.cn/20210115). China is willing to work with Indonesia to carry out the mutual beneficial understanding reached by the heads of the two countries, push forward bilateral relations to achieve greater progress by prioritizing joint prevention of the pandemic, and developing mutually beneficial cooperation without harming Indonesia’s political economy interests in the region, of course.

Wang Yi’s visit is part of a series of visits by the Chinese Foreign Minister to several ASEAN countries and in the framework of celebrating 70 years of Indonesia and China diplomatic relations.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi initiated his Southeast Asian tour at the beginning of this week beginning from 12 to 13 January 2021, after he closed a six-day tour of Africa the previous week (thediplomat.com, 15/1/2021). Wang’s trip is pursued at stabilizing South China Sea region, strengthening maritime cooperation with Southeast Asian states, and expecting positive results from its Belt and Road Initiative development. That’s why Wang Yi chose to visit Myanmar, which assumed the roles of the coordinator of China-ASEAN relations and co-chair of consultations on the Code of Conduct, known as COC, in 2021, as well as Brunei, which holds the rotating ASEAN chairmanship for 2021. As China wants to accelerate the COC negotiations, better policy coordination with these two countries would be beneficial. Beijing is trying to upgrade its political economy relations with Jakarta and Manila by providing vaccine availability and stronger bilateral economic cooperation benefits along with maintaining regional peace and stability.

Meanwhile, January 20, 2021, will see the change in US administration with President-Elect Joe Biden swearing-in as the 46th US President, things remain tensed among various world major powers conflicting interest from Middle East, Africa, Europe, and the Asia Pacific to how will Joe Biden administration decide and behave strategically in responding to any international relations issues dynamics.

Under the leadership of Joe Biden from 2020 to 2024, it is likely that the position of the United States as a superpower will soon improve its ambitious presence in various parts of the world, especially in the Southeast Asia region. This is done by Washington D.C regarding the emergence of a real threat to Beijing’s maneuver ambition to dominate and control the South China Sea region through its baseless nine-dashed line claims.

Washington DC policymakers have considered the possibility of sharp rivalries between the US and Chinese powers in the Southeast Asian region. This has happened since Hillary Clinton became US secretary of state with ‘Pivot to Asia’ diplomacy along with US President Barack Obama’s Rebalance Policy in 2010.

China must maintain stability and embodiment in the South China Sea region to respect international law, including the implementation of UNCLOS in 1982. Otherwise, it will escalate conflictual tension and open conflict with the US.

Therefore, the Southeast Asia region may become a central point of economic growth in the Asia Pacific region as it has become a crucial point for the struggle for influence from the US and China followed by the deployment of massive military forces in the South China Sea region since 2018.

Since most of the Southeast Asian countries rely heavily on foreign trade and investment, building closer economic ties with China would be the best choice for them to put their economies back on their feet. In fact, the 10 countries of Southeast Asia collectively became the biggest trading partner for China for the first time in 2020, overtaking the European Union. In the new context of the slowed spread of COVID-19 after vaccine rollouts, the implementation of BRI projects will be accelerated to boost employment and economic development in Southeast Asian countries.

A shift in the world political constellation which has been dominated by the United States, European Union, and China is likely to sharpen Beijing and Washington D.C.’s interests in the region. This is related to the possibility of deploying US military power under Joe Biden’s administration to the Southeast Asia region in response to China’s massive militarization in the South China Sea.

Moreover, the rivalries of the US and China in the South China Sea region are also a manifestation of Indonesia’s regional interests and maintaining a free and active foreign policy orientation, and optimizing Indonesia’s role in maintaining world peace.

Thereafter, in the midst of the global pandemic, suppose Indonesia will rise to a world major power by taking political economy advantage and utilizing the global situation of the shifting constellation of the US, the EU, and China in the international political and economic system.

Hence, the South China Sea regional situation is likely to continue to heat up with the growing importance of the region’s economic development, in which about 60 percent of world trade passes this maritime route.

Small regional countries with a tendency to an alliance with the US, such as the Philippines, may be used by the US to trigger the destabilization of the South China Sea area, which of course has great potential to disrupt China’s trade flow.

Certainly, China will be very ambitious to defend its political economy interests under the US new President Joe Biden administration. So far, the countries in Southeast Asia that have an alliance with China are generally small countries, such as Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos. China needs friends who are trusted and calculated in the region, such as Indonesia. Jakarta should negotiate and take the benefits and benefits while remaining alert to the threat of China’s unilateral claims in the South China Sea.

China must be invited to invest heavily and transfer technology without harming Indonesia’s interests. The existence of China should be optimally utilized to strengthen the resilience of Indonesia’s industry from upstream to downstream.

Indonesia as the third largest democratic country in the world with a geostrategic and geopolitics position in the Indo-Pacific region is much likely to be a reliable stabilizing actor with strong and solidify its regional strategic role as a peacebuilder in the Asia Pacific.

Diskusi dan Bedah Buku Virtual ‘Uni Eropa: Institusi, Politik dan Kebijakan’

Uni Eropa adalah sebuah entitas sui generis. Paduan dua karakter yang bertolak belakang, yakni supranasionalisme, di satu sisi, dan intergevernmentalisme, di sisi lain, menjadikan Uni Eropa sulit untuk dipahami dengan menggunakan parameter-parameter entitas politik modern yang kita kenal. Sekalipun memiliki institusi-institusi supranasional, Uni Eropa bukanlah sebuah ‘super state’ atau sebuah pemerintah federal. Tetapi, pada saat yang sama kita juga tidak bisa memahami Uni Eropa semata-mata sebagai sebuah organisasi internasional. Kedua aspek tersebut, supranasionalisme dan intergovernmentalisme, berinteraksi dan menghasilkan institusi, politik maupun kebijakan dengan karakter yang unik dan sangat khas Uni Eropa, yang tidak dapat ditemukan padanannya pada enititas politik lain. Disamping itu, dinamika hubungan antara supernasionalisme dan intergovern mentalisme menjadikan Uni Eropa selalu berubah dari waktu ke waktu. Dan, tidak seperti yang dibayangkan oleh banyak orang, integrasi tidak berlangsung secara linier dan progresif menuju satu tujuan akhir tertentu yang didisain sejak awal melainkan secara gradual seiring dengan kebutuhan. Realitas ini juga secara jelas tercermin dalam institusi, politik dan kebijakan Uni Eropa.

Pembahasan terkait Institusi, Politik dan Kebijakan di Uni Eropa akan didiskusikan dalam acara Bedah Buku Virtual yang merupakan kerjasama Komunitas Indonesia untuk Kajian Eropa (KIKE) bersama Perpustakaan FISIPOL UGM.

Acara ini juga sekaligus sebagai Launching Aplikasi terbaru dari Perpustakaan FISIPOL UGM loh, Penasaran kan apa Aplikasinya ? Yuk, untuk rekan-rekan yang tertarik dapat melakukan registrasi melalui link yang tertera pada Link ugm.id/RegistrasiBedahBukuEU.
Jangan sampai ketinggalan yah, akan ada hadiah menarik bagi yang beruntung selama sesi acara. Kami tunggu kehadiran rekan-rekan semua di hari Selasa, 26 Januari 2021 pukul 10:00 WIB yah…..

Konflik Pilpres Belarusia: Kompetisi Kepentingan Global

Penulis : Yohanes Ivan Adi Kristianto (Dosen Program Studi Ilmu Hubungan Internasional, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur)

Ketika publik membicarakan Eropa, Belarusia merupakan salah satu negara yang jarangkali disinggung. Negara yang terletak di bagian timur pada benua Eropa ini relatif tertutup, dibandingkan dengan negara lain di Benua Biru. Melihat rekam jejak negara ini, eksklusifnya Belarusia bisa dipahami. Sebelum berdaulat pada 1991, Belarusia pernah bergabung dengan rezim komunis Uni Soviet. Meskipun telah lepas dari pemimpin Blok Timur, Belarusia masih menerapkan sebagian besar aturan yang dipakai saat bergabung dengan Soviet, diantaranya menutup diri dari dunia luar sebisa mungkin.

Dari 1994 hingga detik ini, Belarusia hanya pernah dipimpin oleh Aleksandr Lukashenko. Melalui pemilihan presiden (pilpres) pertama kali yang demokratis, Lukashenko berhasil mengalahkan Shushkevich dan Kebich dalam dua putaran. Setelah Shushkevich tersingkir, pada putaran kedua Lukashenko tak terbendung dengan memperoleh suara tak kurang dari 80%. (Reuters, 1994)

Memang, selama sekian tahun, Lukashenko berulangkali terpilih menjadi presiden Belarusia melalui pemilihan umum. Namun, pihak oposisi menduga kuat bahwa Lukashenko memang sengaja berusaha melanggengkan kekuasaannya dengan cara-cara yang tidak demokratis, seperti menangkap pengkritiknya yang vokal. Konflik pilpres Belarusia sendiri dimulai dari perlawanan seorang blogger,  Sergei Tikhanovsky, pada Mei 2020 yang menyebut Lukashenko sebagai “kecoa” karena dianggap sebagai antek asing. Akhirnya, dia pun ditahan oleh aparat. Kemudian, kandidat lawan petahana yakni Mikola Statkevich, Viktor Babaryko, dan Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Nama terakhir yang disebut dianggap sebagai lawan paling potensial bagi Lukashenko.

Jika analisis isu ini ditarik ke level internasional, peta politik semakin beragam. Pertanyaan selanjutnya, siapa saja yang terlibat dalam isu pilpres Belarusia dan apa saja kepentingan mereka?

Uni Eropa

Uni Eropa (UE) dalam konflik di Belarusia setidaknya mempunyai dua kepentingan. Pertama, UE berkepentingan menyatukan negara anggotanya kembali setelah permasalahan Covid-19 di Eropa sempat mengancam keutuhan organisasi ini. Dalam isu pilpres tersebut, baik UE maupun anggotanya sepakat mengecam tindakan represif Lukashenko terhadap lawan politiknya. Presiden Komisi Eropa, Ursula von Der Leyen, pada pertengahan Agustus 2020 menyatakan bahwa UE menyiapkan skema sanksi ekonomi atas pencederaan terhadap kebebasan berekspresi di Belarusia. (Euractiv, 2020)

Tak seperti isu bantuan Covid-19 di UE, pernyatan Leyen sebagai representasi UE disepakati negara anggota UE, bahkan oleh negara-negara yang selama ini menentang kebijakan UE. Belanda, misal, Perdana Menteri Mark Rutte mengatakan bahwa Belanda tidak menerima hasil dari pilpres Belarusia 2020 yang memenangkan Lukashenko. Rutte yang membuat pernyataan lewat akun Twitternya menambahkan pula bahwa Belanda siap bergabung dengan UE untuk mengeluarkan resolusi terkait masalah itu.

Sepakat dengan Belanda, Perdana Menteri Polandia, Mateusz Morawiecki juga mengecam tindak kekerasan yang diterapkan aparat pada demonstrasi di Minsk, ibukota Belarusia. Morawiecki menegaskan pentingnya kebebasan berpendapat bagi masyarakat Belarusia. (Euractiv, 2020) Bahkan, Polandia bersedia jika Pakta Pertahanan Atlantik Utara (NATO) berjaga di perbatasan Polandia-Belarusia untuk menekan Lukashenko. Padahal, sebelumnya, Belanda bersama Polandia dan beberapa negara Skandinavia memprotes rencana UE menggelontorkan anggaran organisasi untuk dialokasikan sebagai hibah.

Bagi UE, permasalahan ini justru sebagai momentum untuk memperkuat kohesi regional (regional cohesiveness) yang berimplikasi pada meningkatnya kekompakan diantara mereka. Menurut Ghica (2013), kohesi regional dapat diartikan sebagai kesamaan tindakan aktor-aktor yang mendiami suatu wilayah dan secara bersamaan tindakan mereka mewakili suatu kelompok. UE, Polandia, Belanda, dan negara anggota UE lainnya dalam isu Belarusia memiliki kesamaan cara pandang sebagai bangsa Eropa Barat, sehingga menciptakan kohesi regional.

Dilihat dari letak geografis, posisi Belarusia sangatlah strategis di daratan Eropa. Belarusia bisa dikatakan sebagai penghubung antara wilayah UE dan Rusia. Hubungan antara UE dan Rusia sendiri tidak terlalu baik. Keduanya sering berseteru, walau dalam hal perdagangan, mereka cenderung saling membutuhkan. UE adalah pasar potensial bagi Rusia, sedangkan UE membutuhkan pasokan gas dari Rusia. Jika bisa mengubah Belarusia menjadi negara demokratis, Belarusia kemungkinan besar akan bergabung dengan UE. Bergabungnya Belarusia dengan UE berpotensi menjadikan daya tawar UE lebih besar terhadap Rusia sebab jalur gas Rusia bergantung pada Belarusia. (Reilly, 2020)

NATO

Selain UE, pihak lain yang berkepentingan ialah NATO, aliansi pertahanan yang dimotori oleh Amerika Serikat (AS). Apa kepentingan NATO? Sebelum menjawab, perlu dipahami bahwa Belarusia sangat dekat dengan Rusia, meskipun Lukashenko sendiri berusaha memposisikan sebagai negara netral. Lukashenko akhir-akhir ini merasa dirugikan oleh Rusia yang mengurangi subsidi minyak mentah kepada Belarusia. Padahal, Lukashenko telah mengijinkan Putin, Presiden Rusia, untuk memasang pipa gas di teritori Belarusia. Presiden Belarusia ini juga memiliki kekhawatiran Belarusia bakal senasib dengan Ukraina yang dianeksasi Rusia.

Jadi, dengan keterlibatannya, NATO berusaha menekan Rusia supaya setidaknya menghambat Negeri Beruang Merah untuk menjauh dari Belarusia. NATO pun sebenarnya tidak ada intensi untuk melancarkan perang terbuka di negara tetangga Polandia tersebut. Jika Rusia bisa secara total “menguasai” Belarusia, ekonomi Rusia diprediksi bakal semakin mapan karena jalur gas dan perdagangan semakin aman. Tentu, menguatnya Rusia dalam bidang ekonomi kurang disukai oleh AS. (Kagan, 2020)

Prediksi

Setidaknya, ada tiga poin yang dapat diperkirakan terkait konflik pilpres tersebut. Pertama, konfrontasi langsung antara pihak-pihak terkait seperti Belarusia, Rusia, UE, NATO, dan AS tidak terjadi. UE dan AS cenderung memilih jalan sanksi ekonomi. Perang terbuka justru akan merugikan semua pihak karena ekonomi mereka semakin terguncang setelah menurun akibat Covid-19. Kedua, tingkat agresivitas NATO sangat bergantung pada Presiden AS, Donald Trump. Sejauh ini, Trump relatif lebih disibukkan dengan pilpres AS. Kalau dianggap menguntungkan, bukan tak mungkin Trump menggunakan NATO untuk memprovokasi keadaan. Terakhir, bila UE sukses dalam mendorong demokratisasi di Belarusia, negara anggota UE diprediksi akan bertambah satu.

Kesimpulannya, pilpres Belarusia tidak hanya melibatkan negara itu sendiri, melainkan juga aktor politik lainnya. Keterlibatan mereka disebabkan oleh posisi geografis yang menguntungkan. Khusus UE, keikutsertaan organisasi juga demi menguatkan rezim UE.

Tulisan ini pertama kali terbit di Qureta pada 10 September 2020.

INDONESIA NATIONAL TOURISM DEVELOPMENT 2021 & BEYOND
Source: https://www.islandsindonesia.id/, Oct. 17, 2020

Writer: Hendra Manurung is currently doctoral candidate in international relations at Padjadjaran University, Bandung, West Java

In early April 2020, when other domestic industrial sectors have not yet experienced stagnation due to the impact of the COVID-19 global pandemic, in fact, Indonesia’s national tourism industry has already been affected badly.

Meanwhile, in mid-January 2021, when other industrial sectors also began to tidy up and move forward unfortunately Indonesian domestic tourism industry again had to hit the brakes and move backward.

Indonesian Central Statistics Agency recorded that foreign tourist visits from January to November 2020 fell by 73.6 percent on an annual basis. Although the trend of monthly visits from September to November 2020 has increased, the majority of foreign citizens visiting Indonesia are not for vacation and travel trips, but for work-related visits or on business trips.

Meanwhile, based on data from the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy, the decline in foreign tourist arrivals during the global pandemic had an impact on the Indonesian tourism sector, which lost foreign exchange up to the US $ 15 billion (IDR 240 trillion).

The United Nations of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) declares that 2020 is the worst period in tourism historical development.

Global tourism has been badly affected and it is predicted that it will take from 2.5 to 4 years to recover immediately (2020 to 2023). It is likely that the global tourism sector will experience complete recovery in mid-2024. This scenario is based on the assumption that the transmission of the COVID-19 outbreak has been successfully controlled, vaccinations are effective, and policies between countries to begin opening doors to foreign tourists.

It is recognized that the turn of the year from 2020 to 2021 has brought new hope to the international community. Vaccines become available, followed by government policies in each country announcing the availability of free vaccinations for their citizens, and countries around the world also schedule massive vaccinations.

Early December 2020, based on UNWTO data, around 70 percent of world tourist destinations have relaxed restrictions on traveling abroad and hope that the national tourism sector will begin to revive gradually.

However, entering mid-January 2021, the emergence of a new variant of COVID-19 in Britain and South Africa, as well as an increase in domestic cases that reached up to 10,000 people affected by COVID-19, made the domestic tourism industry sector again have to be patient, wait and see in the middle global economic uncertainties.

In addition to the travel restriction policy that was re-implemented by almost all countries, in Indonesia, large-scale social restrictions were also re-implemented in the country from 11 to 25 January 2021. This central government policy was prioritized in a number of areas on the island of Java and Bali, which in particular still had the status of the red zone.

Apart from the state of health and the national economy that has not yet improved, the central government continues to set its target of pursuing the development of infrastructure and infrastructure and structuring tourism areas. The Indonesian government is also targeting foreign tourist visits in 2021 to reach 4 to 7 million people. This target has been lowered previously, which reached 18 million foreign tourists.

President Joko Widodo asked the Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy, Sandiaga Uno to immediately pursue the development of five national priority tourist destinations, namely: Borobudur, Labuan Bajo, Likupang, Mandalika, Toba Lake. Indonesian Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing has budgeted an allocation of around IDR 3.51 trillion to build infrastructure.

The destination development program called the ‘5 New Bali’ is designed by the central government in Jakarta to anticipate conditions of increasing foreign tourist visits before the global pandemic began to plague Indonesia on March 2, 2020. There are criticisms related to accelerating tourism infrastructure development that should not be a top priority for the central government in Indonesia amid the spread of a pandemic that still cannot be controlled in domestic tourist destinations.

Even though the tourism industry entrepreneurs and tourism sector workers are getting worse and more in need of social and financial assistance from the government to survive amid the outbreak of the pandemic.

In the midst of a limited budget, the government needs to determine priorities and emphasize a sense of crisis.

The realistic target is to maximize the stimulus and incentive budgets for the industry as well as the distribution of cash transfers for tourism sector workers.

Based on Indonesian Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy data, the national tourism sector absorbs 13 million workers in 2019 or 10.28 percent of the national workforce. So far, the social assistance schemes for workers are general in nature and are equalized for all sectors, not yet specific to each sector. Indonesian Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy plans to expand the provision of direct cash assistance specifically for the tourism sector and the creative economy will soon be realized. Likewise, the provision of grants for tourism industry entrepreneurs must be evaluated and expanded to make them more effective, targeted, and efficient.

The central government and national tourism stakeholders face a difficult dilemma. The government must be faced with a choice between survival and adaptation, economic recovery, or building infrastructure and infrastructure. The position of survival and adaptation must be the top priority while being serious about suppressing the spread of the virus and holding massive vaccinations. Hopefully, gradually, the recovery of the tourism sector can be carried out in line with the pandemic control which should be kept to a minimum.

The infrastructure development project is likely to be the final stage after the tourism sector begins to recover and requires gradual reform. It is believed that the results of the construction of a large-scale tourist destination can only be enjoyed after five to ten years. The presence or absence of a massive infrastructure project does not have a direct impact on the millions of people who are now having difficulty making a living.

In Indonesia, until now, COVID-19 pandemic has presented tough test, particularly in choosing which priorities to take for policy-makers and the best benefit for entire nation.

WHO’S DRONES UNDER INDONESIAN WATERS
Source: http://english.sia.cas.cn, 21 July 2017

Writer: Hendra Manurung is currently a doctoral candidate in international relations at Padjadjaran University, Bandung, West Java

In early January 2021, the Indonesian public was greatly shocked by the discovery of an underwater drone caught by fishermen by late December 2020, off the coast of the Selayar Islands, South Sulawesi.

The initial discovery of the drone was caught by local fishermen at Masalembu Madura on 20 December 2020 which was equipped with a surveillance camera and had Chinese characters (Kompas, January 5, 2020). Previously on March 3, 2019, also found a drone with Chinese characters and clearly written Shenyang Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Recently in 2018 (https://sputniknews.com, 2 August 2018), Shenyang Institute of Automation of Chinese Academy of Sciences or known as CAS, recently completed test flights of Xiangying-200 unmanned helicopter and it has now entered its acceptance stage. Xiangying-200 was jointly developed by Shenyang Institute of Automation and several units of CAS. It’s 8.7 meters long, 2.5 meters high, and can carry a payload of 150 to 200 kg. The key components such as the control system, power system, and transmission system are all domestically developed. It indicates that the independent research and development ability of China’s large unmanned helicopter has been further improved.

However, the shocking news was only widely discussed by the Indonesian public in early 2021. The drone with a series of sensors on its nose has a length of 2.25 meters the length of the two wings is 50 cm, the length of the rear antenna is 93 cm, while the body structure is made of aluminum with weighs 175 kilograms (Kompas, 5 January 2020).

During peacetime, a sea-glider is a small drone operated by the manufacturing country with the aim of being able to operate under the depths of the sea, and is useful for collecting marine data for the national interest by the decision-makers of the making countries. This underwater drone is equipped with sophisticated sensor instruments to monitor temperature, salinity, ocean current velocity, and various other marine conditions.

Further, the discovery of the drone in the form of a sea-glider is currently being examined by the Indonesian Navy. It is likely that a thorough investigation process will take at least a week to a month. A number of cases of finding underwater drones or sea-gliders in Indonesia since 2019 should never be underestimated and must be investigated comprehensively, and opened as widely as possible to the Indonesian public, who and which countries actually own the underwater drones. At least, there are three cases of findings of underwater drones or sea-gliders in Indonesia, namely: 1) Tenggel Island, Bintan Region (3 March 2019). At drone found Chinese characters written Shenyang Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences; 2) Masalembu, Madura (20 January 2020). Found things like drones equipped with camera and Chinese characters; 3) Selayar waters, South Sulawesi (26 December 2020). A fisherman found a sea-glider. Indonesian Navy has not found any characters of the characteristics of the writing originating from the country of manufacture.

From now on, the Indonesian government must never be afraid of China’s expansive ambitions to control and dominate the South China Sea territories. To the last drop of blood, the Indonesian nation supports the sovereignty of Indonesia’s territorial territories.

Obviously, the location of the discovery of a number of cases of an underwater drone or sea-glider findings in Indonesia over the last two years is precisely in the location of a trade prone route in the South China Sea.

A domestically developed underwater glider set a new world record by reaching a depth of 6,329 meters, breaking the previous record of 6,003 meters held by a U.S. vessel, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Furthermore, this underwater glider drone named Haiyi, which means sea wings in Chinese language (海逸), went underwater aboard the deep-sea submersible mother ship Tansuo-1 (坦索1) during a mission in the Mariana Trench in early July 2017.

Although oceans cover about 71 percent of the Earth, many parts, especially deep-sea areas, are still unexplored. By reaching 6,000 meters, Haiyi allows Chinese scientists to explore 97 percent of the maritime territories.

Haiyi, developed by the Shenyang Institute of Automation under CAS, is used in monitoring vast areas of the deep-sea environment, such as seawater temperature, salinity, turbidity, chlorophyll, and oxygen content.

During the recent mission, Haiyi dived down 12 times and traveled about 130 kilometers, collecting high-resolution data for scientific research.

The underwater glider, which carries lots of detectors, has a simple cylindrical body, with two small wings making it look like a small plane, and a long tail, plus an antenna to send signals to drone country-maker.

Different from other underwater robots, the glider does not have a propeller but uses a different method to move in the water. In its body, there is an oil bag that works like a fish bladder and a moveable battery.

The glider also has a special coat made of light carbon fiber material to protect it from the huge pressure in the deep sea. When it glides down to 6,000 meters, the pressure could reach 60 MPa, which is similar to holding 60-tons of weight on your palm.

Based on China Daily, in Oct 2014, Haiyi swam 1,022.5 kilometers nonstop in 30 days during a test, setting a record in China for the longest time and distance covered by an underwater glider.

The underwater drone found in Indonesia is similar to a missile and is a type of sea-glider. This object is made of aluminum along 2.2 meters with two wings and a 93-centimeter long antenna. There is also an instrument similar to a surveillance camera on the body of the tool.

From 2018 to 2021, the escalation of tensions in the South China Sea is still happening, triggered by rivalry and friction in the ambition of expanding the interests of China VS the United States.

These Sea-gliders are usually used by the producing countries for the benefit of the underwater research of the producing countries. This underwater drone can dive to a depth of 2,000 meters. In the sea, this type of drone can record data on temperature, salinity, and direction of seawater currents, oxygen levels, sea fertility, and the sound of fish. The data collected is then sent via satellite when this underwater drone appears above sea level. The device is estimated to be able to withstand deep-sea surveillance operations for up to two years or seven hundred and thirty days.

These underwater drones are widely used to search underwater oceanographic data and are also used for various national interests of producing countries, both for industrial purposes and strategic military interests.

For industrial purposes, underwater drones can be used for various offshore drilling activities to search for marine resources.

Meanwhile, for strategic military defense purposes, this underwater drone is operationalized in finding water depth points and detecting seawater concentrations, thus, submarine operations cannot be easily detected by sensors of warships above sea level.

This unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) is indeed included in the category of underwater research tools. UUV was found in a non-functioning condition, but it has not expired. There are internal technical obstacles in this underwater drone operational system.

It is estimated that the UUV already has an operational dive time of more than 25,000 hours or close to three years or 995 days. Most likely this underwater drone began operating in November 2017.

Never underestimate the case found in Selayar Islands, which are most likely the underwater drones produced by the bamboo curtain country. This type of underwater drone can be categorized as an unmanned underwater vehicle.

Until now there has been no official statement from the country that makes underwater drones that have been found to be in Indonesian territorial waters. It is particularly related to the aims and objectives desired by country maker production.

Obviously, the deliberate use of underwater drones in the territorial waters of other countries is categorized as an instrument to support spying and intelligence activities.

In fact, in the world of modern intelligence, various tactical and strategic instruments are deliberately used to operate in silence without arousing the suspicion of other countries. All attributes relating to certain country affiliations are intentionally omitted. The goal is not to be exposed and not easily accused by other countries when the instrument has been discovered.

If the state being spied on is an intelligence agent from a certain country that is carrying out intelligence operations, the sending country will never acknowledge the intelligence operational activities in order to maintain good relations between governments.

Indonesian public is eagerly very much waiting for the findings by the Indonesian Navy on the operation of foreign countries’ underwater drones. Indonesia must continue to strengthen national defense and improve the quality of the sea, air, and land defense.

The Indonesian government must be vigilant and ready to respond to the intelligence activities of major countries that deliberately carry out spying operations in the South China Sea area which must be responded to and anticipated.

In the midst of the spread of a new variant of the COVID-19 outbreak, in observing the dynamics of international relations in the South China Sea, it is necessary to become a concern and a policy priority by Indonesia that ‘Lupus est homo homini, non homo, quom qualis sit non novit’ or known as ‘homo homini lupus’ (drama entitled Asinaria by Titus Maccius Plautus, 254-184 BC), is real. Where, humans (country) are not humans (countries), but wolves for others, who are ready to prey on and rule at any time.

Neither friend nor foe lasts longer than the achievement of ambitions and interests in the international system.