Category Blog KIKE

INDONESIA & CHINA FM VISITS TO SE ASIA
Wang Yi meets President Joko Widodo (http://indonesian.cri.cn, 15/1.2021)

Writer: Hendra Manurung is currently a doctorate candidate in international relations at Padjadjaran University, Bandung, West Java

After World War II (1945-1990) until the current digital revolution 4.0, the international community experienced the Pax Americana momentum. A period of global development and international peace has taken shape, with the United States as a superpower and the international political system leading to unipolar and arrogance of interests alone.

During Wang Yi’s visit to Indonesia on January 13, 2021 (kemlu.go.id, 14/1/2021), 5 points of understanding were reached, namely 1) coping with the pandemic, 2) deepening pragmatic cooperation in various fields, 3) encouraging regional cooperation in East Asia, 4) maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea, and 5) together to maintain and encourage multilateralism.

So far, Indonesia and China have discussed and exchanged ideas about the global situation, particularly in facing the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. Regarding the issue of health cooperation, the Indonesian government emphasized the importance of the sustainability of regional health cooperation. Especially in the framework of ASEAN cooperation as a follow-up to China’s various commitments in handling the global pandemic, such as the US$ 5 million commitment to support the Public Health Cooperation Initiative: Program on Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capacity or PROMPT, and a US$ 1 million commitment to the ASEAN COVID-19 Response Fund.

Since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, Indonesia and China have collaborated in health cooperation both to provide diagnostic, therapeutic, and vaccine tools. In addition, the two countries are also committed to increasing the independence of the drug industry, medicinal raw materials, and medical devices in Indonesia.

In the midst of a pandemic and a sluggish global economic situation, Indonesia’s exports to China in 2020 increased by 10.96 percent. One of the products that experienced a significant increase was steel exports to China, which was the result of the downstream industrial process in Indonesia.

Therefore, in order to achieve balanced and mutually beneficial trade, Indonesia underlines the importance of joint efforts to overcome various obstacles in bilateral trade, in particular, to expand and open up Chinese market access for Indonesia’s leading exports such as palm oil, fishery products, tropical fruit, and swallow’s nest.

Both countries agreed to encourage boosted foreign investment and mutual cooperation in infrastructure development through partnerships that are quality, environmentally friendly, and which can absorb Indonesian workers.

Jakarta appreciates Beijing for the cooperation in handling problems of Indonesian crew members working on Chinese-flagged ships, including support for the return of Indonesian crew members from November to December 2020. In addition, it also encourages solutions for the return of stranded crew members, settlement of labor rights, and improvement of conditions, safe and conducive work, and law enforcement implementation through mutual legal assistance.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Russia (2018) (http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57207)

On the other side, regarding regional and global cooperation, it is necessary to implement the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), as well as Indonesia’s determination to continue to maintain ASEAN centrality in its implementation. It is very important to maintain stability and peace in the region, to keep the South China Sea as a peaceful and stable sea. All countries need to respect and implement international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS.

While in Indonesia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has also reviewed one of the synergy implementation projects of the Indonesia Global Maritime Fulcrum and the China Belt and Road Initiative and a meeting with the Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment in Lake Toba, North Sumatra, as well as carrying out a courtesy visit to President Joko Widodo.

Hence, it needs to be a shared priority of China and Indonesia are both large developing countries and important new economic powers, where strengthening cooperation between the two countries has strategic significance and global influence continuously (http://indonesian.cri.cn/20210115). China is willing to work with Indonesia to carry out the mutual beneficial understanding reached by the heads of the two countries, push forward bilateral relations to achieve greater progress by prioritizing joint prevention of the pandemic, and developing mutually beneficial cooperation without harming Indonesia’s political economy interests in the region, of course.

Wang Yi’s visit is part of a series of visits by the Chinese Foreign Minister to several ASEAN countries and in the framework of celebrating 70 years of Indonesia and China diplomatic relations.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi initiated his Southeast Asian tour at the beginning of this week beginning from 12 to 13 January 2021, after he closed a six-day tour of Africa the previous week (thediplomat.com, 15/1/2021). Wang’s trip is pursued at stabilizing South China Sea region, strengthening maritime cooperation with Southeast Asian states, and expecting positive results from its Belt and Road Initiative development. That’s why Wang Yi chose to visit Myanmar, which assumed the roles of the coordinator of China-ASEAN relations and co-chair of consultations on the Code of Conduct, known as COC, in 2021, as well as Brunei, which holds the rotating ASEAN chairmanship for 2021. As China wants to accelerate the COC negotiations, better policy coordination with these two countries would be beneficial. Beijing is trying to upgrade its political economy relations with Jakarta and Manila by providing vaccine availability and stronger bilateral economic cooperation benefits along with maintaining regional peace and stability.

Meanwhile, January 20, 2021, will see the change in US administration with President-Elect Joe Biden swearing-in as the 46th US President, things remain tensed among various world major powers conflicting interest from Middle East, Africa, Europe, and the Asia Pacific to how will Joe Biden administration decide and behave strategically in responding to any international relations issues dynamics.

Under the leadership of Joe Biden from 2020 to 2024, it is likely that the position of the United States as a superpower will soon improve its ambitious presence in various parts of the world, especially in the Southeast Asia region. This is done by Washington D.C regarding the emergence of a real threat to Beijing’s maneuver ambition to dominate and control the South China Sea region through its baseless nine-dashed line claims.

Washington DC policymakers have considered the possibility of sharp rivalries between the US and Chinese powers in the Southeast Asian region. This has happened since Hillary Clinton became US secretary of state with ‘Pivot to Asia’ diplomacy along with US President Barack Obama’s Rebalance Policy in 2010.

China must maintain stability and embodiment in the South China Sea region to respect international law, including the implementation of UNCLOS in 1982. Otherwise, it will escalate conflictual tension and open conflict with the US.

Therefore, the Southeast Asia region may become a central point of economic growth in the Asia Pacific region as it has become a crucial point for the struggle for influence from the US and China followed by the deployment of massive military forces in the South China Sea region since 2018.

Since most of the Southeast Asian countries rely heavily on foreign trade and investment, building closer economic ties with China would be the best choice for them to put their economies back on their feet. In fact, the 10 countries of Southeast Asia collectively became the biggest trading partner for China for the first time in 2020, overtaking the European Union. In the new context of the slowed spread of COVID-19 after vaccine rollouts, the implementation of BRI projects will be accelerated to boost employment and economic development in Southeast Asian countries.

A shift in the world political constellation which has been dominated by the United States, European Union, and China is likely to sharpen Beijing and Washington D.C.’s interests in the region. This is related to the possibility of deploying US military power under Joe Biden’s administration to the Southeast Asia region in response to China’s massive militarization in the South China Sea.

Moreover, the rivalries of the US and China in the South China Sea region are also a manifestation of Indonesia’s regional interests and maintaining a free and active foreign policy orientation, and optimizing Indonesia’s role in maintaining world peace.

Thereafter, in the midst of the global pandemic, suppose Indonesia will rise to a world major power by taking political economy advantage and utilizing the global situation of the shifting constellation of the US, the EU, and China in the international political and economic system.

Hence, the South China Sea regional situation is likely to continue to heat up with the growing importance of the region’s economic development, in which about 60 percent of world trade passes this maritime route.

Small regional countries with a tendency to an alliance with the US, such as the Philippines, may be used by the US to trigger the destabilization of the South China Sea area, which of course has great potential to disrupt China’s trade flow.

Certainly, China will be very ambitious to defend its political economy interests under the US new President Joe Biden administration. So far, the countries in Southeast Asia that have an alliance with China are generally small countries, such as Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos. China needs friends who are trusted and calculated in the region, such as Indonesia. Jakarta should negotiate and take the benefits and benefits while remaining alert to the threat of China’s unilateral claims in the South China Sea.

China must be invited to invest heavily and transfer technology without harming Indonesia’s interests. The existence of China should be optimally utilized to strengthen the resilience of Indonesia’s industry from upstream to downstream.

Indonesia as the third largest democratic country in the world with a geostrategic and geopolitics position in the Indo-Pacific region is much likely to be a reliable stabilizing actor with strong and solidify its regional strategic role as a peacebuilder in the Asia Pacific.

Konflik Pilpres Belarusia: Kompetisi Kepentingan Global

Penulis : Yohanes Ivan Adi Kristianto (Dosen Program Studi Ilmu Hubungan Internasional, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur)

Ketika publik membicarakan Eropa, Belarusia merupakan salah satu negara yang jarangkali disinggung. Negara yang terletak di bagian timur pada benua Eropa ini relatif tertutup, dibandingkan dengan negara lain di Benua Biru. Melihat rekam jejak negara ini, eksklusifnya Belarusia bisa dipahami. Sebelum berdaulat pada 1991, Belarusia pernah bergabung dengan rezim komunis Uni Soviet. Meskipun telah lepas dari pemimpin Blok Timur, Belarusia masih menerapkan sebagian besar aturan yang dipakai saat bergabung dengan Soviet, diantaranya menutup diri dari dunia luar sebisa mungkin.

Dari 1994 hingga detik ini, Belarusia hanya pernah dipimpin oleh Aleksandr Lukashenko. Melalui pemilihan presiden (pilpres) pertama kali yang demokratis, Lukashenko berhasil mengalahkan Shushkevich dan Kebich dalam dua putaran. Setelah Shushkevich tersingkir, pada putaran kedua Lukashenko tak terbendung dengan memperoleh suara tak kurang dari 80%. (Reuters, 1994)

Memang, selama sekian tahun, Lukashenko berulangkali terpilih menjadi presiden Belarusia melalui pemilihan umum. Namun, pihak oposisi menduga kuat bahwa Lukashenko memang sengaja berusaha melanggengkan kekuasaannya dengan cara-cara yang tidak demokratis, seperti menangkap pengkritiknya yang vokal. Konflik pilpres Belarusia sendiri dimulai dari perlawanan seorang blogger,  Sergei Tikhanovsky, pada Mei 2020 yang menyebut Lukashenko sebagai “kecoa” karena dianggap sebagai antek asing. Akhirnya, dia pun ditahan oleh aparat. Kemudian, kandidat lawan petahana yakni Mikola Statkevich, Viktor Babaryko, dan Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Nama terakhir yang disebut dianggap sebagai lawan paling potensial bagi Lukashenko.

Jika analisis isu ini ditarik ke level internasional, peta politik semakin beragam. Pertanyaan selanjutnya, siapa saja yang terlibat dalam isu pilpres Belarusia dan apa saja kepentingan mereka?

Uni Eropa

Uni Eropa (UE) dalam konflik di Belarusia setidaknya mempunyai dua kepentingan. Pertama, UE berkepentingan menyatukan negara anggotanya kembali setelah permasalahan Covid-19 di Eropa sempat mengancam keutuhan organisasi ini. Dalam isu pilpres tersebut, baik UE maupun anggotanya sepakat mengecam tindakan represif Lukashenko terhadap lawan politiknya. Presiden Komisi Eropa, Ursula von Der Leyen, pada pertengahan Agustus 2020 menyatakan bahwa UE menyiapkan skema sanksi ekonomi atas pencederaan terhadap kebebasan berekspresi di Belarusia. (Euractiv, 2020)

Tak seperti isu bantuan Covid-19 di UE, pernyatan Leyen sebagai representasi UE disepakati negara anggota UE, bahkan oleh negara-negara yang selama ini menentang kebijakan UE. Belanda, misal, Perdana Menteri Mark Rutte mengatakan bahwa Belanda tidak menerima hasil dari pilpres Belarusia 2020 yang memenangkan Lukashenko. Rutte yang membuat pernyataan lewat akun Twitternya menambahkan pula bahwa Belanda siap bergabung dengan UE untuk mengeluarkan resolusi terkait masalah itu.

Sepakat dengan Belanda, Perdana Menteri Polandia, Mateusz Morawiecki juga mengecam tindak kekerasan yang diterapkan aparat pada demonstrasi di Minsk, ibukota Belarusia. Morawiecki menegaskan pentingnya kebebasan berpendapat bagi masyarakat Belarusia. (Euractiv, 2020) Bahkan, Polandia bersedia jika Pakta Pertahanan Atlantik Utara (NATO) berjaga di perbatasan Polandia-Belarusia untuk menekan Lukashenko. Padahal, sebelumnya, Belanda bersama Polandia dan beberapa negara Skandinavia memprotes rencana UE menggelontorkan anggaran organisasi untuk dialokasikan sebagai hibah.

Bagi UE, permasalahan ini justru sebagai momentum untuk memperkuat kohesi regional (regional cohesiveness) yang berimplikasi pada meningkatnya kekompakan diantara mereka. Menurut Ghica (2013), kohesi regional dapat diartikan sebagai kesamaan tindakan aktor-aktor yang mendiami suatu wilayah dan secara bersamaan tindakan mereka mewakili suatu kelompok. UE, Polandia, Belanda, dan negara anggota UE lainnya dalam isu Belarusia memiliki kesamaan cara pandang sebagai bangsa Eropa Barat, sehingga menciptakan kohesi regional.

Dilihat dari letak geografis, posisi Belarusia sangatlah strategis di daratan Eropa. Belarusia bisa dikatakan sebagai penghubung antara wilayah UE dan Rusia. Hubungan antara UE dan Rusia sendiri tidak terlalu baik. Keduanya sering berseteru, walau dalam hal perdagangan, mereka cenderung saling membutuhkan. UE adalah pasar potensial bagi Rusia, sedangkan UE membutuhkan pasokan gas dari Rusia. Jika bisa mengubah Belarusia menjadi negara demokratis, Belarusia kemungkinan besar akan bergabung dengan UE. Bergabungnya Belarusia dengan UE berpotensi menjadikan daya tawar UE lebih besar terhadap Rusia sebab jalur gas Rusia bergantung pada Belarusia. (Reilly, 2020)

NATO

Selain UE, pihak lain yang berkepentingan ialah NATO, aliansi pertahanan yang dimotori oleh Amerika Serikat (AS). Apa kepentingan NATO? Sebelum menjawab, perlu dipahami bahwa Belarusia sangat dekat dengan Rusia, meskipun Lukashenko sendiri berusaha memposisikan sebagai negara netral. Lukashenko akhir-akhir ini merasa dirugikan oleh Rusia yang mengurangi subsidi minyak mentah kepada Belarusia. Padahal, Lukashenko telah mengijinkan Putin, Presiden Rusia, untuk memasang pipa gas di teritori Belarusia. Presiden Belarusia ini juga memiliki kekhawatiran Belarusia bakal senasib dengan Ukraina yang dianeksasi Rusia.

Jadi, dengan keterlibatannya, NATO berusaha menekan Rusia supaya setidaknya menghambat Negeri Beruang Merah untuk menjauh dari Belarusia. NATO pun sebenarnya tidak ada intensi untuk melancarkan perang terbuka di negara tetangga Polandia tersebut. Jika Rusia bisa secara total “menguasai” Belarusia, ekonomi Rusia diprediksi bakal semakin mapan karena jalur gas dan perdagangan semakin aman. Tentu, menguatnya Rusia dalam bidang ekonomi kurang disukai oleh AS. (Kagan, 2020)

Prediksi

Setidaknya, ada tiga poin yang dapat diperkirakan terkait konflik pilpres tersebut. Pertama, konfrontasi langsung antara pihak-pihak terkait seperti Belarusia, Rusia, UE, NATO, dan AS tidak terjadi. UE dan AS cenderung memilih jalan sanksi ekonomi. Perang terbuka justru akan merugikan semua pihak karena ekonomi mereka semakin terguncang setelah menurun akibat Covid-19. Kedua, tingkat agresivitas NATO sangat bergantung pada Presiden AS, Donald Trump. Sejauh ini, Trump relatif lebih disibukkan dengan pilpres AS. Kalau dianggap menguntungkan, bukan tak mungkin Trump menggunakan NATO untuk memprovokasi keadaan. Terakhir, bila UE sukses dalam mendorong demokratisasi di Belarusia, negara anggota UE diprediksi akan bertambah satu.

Kesimpulannya, pilpres Belarusia tidak hanya melibatkan negara itu sendiri, melainkan juga aktor politik lainnya. Keterlibatan mereka disebabkan oleh posisi geografis yang menguntungkan. Khusus UE, keikutsertaan organisasi juga demi menguatkan rezim UE.

Tulisan ini pertama kali terbit di Qureta pada 10 September 2020.

INDONESIA NATIONAL TOURISM DEVELOPMENT 2021 & BEYOND
Source: https://www.islandsindonesia.id/, Oct. 17, 2020

Writer: Hendra Manurung is currently doctoral candidate in international relations at Padjadjaran University, Bandung, West Java

In early April 2020, when other domestic industrial sectors have not yet experienced stagnation due to the impact of the COVID-19 global pandemic, in fact, Indonesia’s national tourism industry has already been affected badly.

Meanwhile, in mid-January 2021, when other industrial sectors also began to tidy up and move forward unfortunately Indonesian domestic tourism industry again had to hit the brakes and move backward.

Indonesian Central Statistics Agency recorded that foreign tourist visits from January to November 2020 fell by 73.6 percent on an annual basis. Although the trend of monthly visits from September to November 2020 has increased, the majority of foreign citizens visiting Indonesia are not for vacation and travel trips, but for work-related visits or on business trips.

Meanwhile, based on data from the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy, the decline in foreign tourist arrivals during the global pandemic had an impact on the Indonesian tourism sector, which lost foreign exchange up to the US $ 15 billion (IDR 240 trillion).

The United Nations of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) declares that 2020 is the worst period in tourism historical development.

Global tourism has been badly affected and it is predicted that it will take from 2.5 to 4 years to recover immediately (2020 to 2023). It is likely that the global tourism sector will experience complete recovery in mid-2024. This scenario is based on the assumption that the transmission of the COVID-19 outbreak has been successfully controlled, vaccinations are effective, and policies between countries to begin opening doors to foreign tourists.

It is recognized that the turn of the year from 2020 to 2021 has brought new hope to the international community. Vaccines become available, followed by government policies in each country announcing the availability of free vaccinations for their citizens, and countries around the world also schedule massive vaccinations.

Early December 2020, based on UNWTO data, around 70 percent of world tourist destinations have relaxed restrictions on traveling abroad and hope that the national tourism sector will begin to revive gradually.

However, entering mid-January 2021, the emergence of a new variant of COVID-19 in Britain and South Africa, as well as an increase in domestic cases that reached up to 10,000 people affected by COVID-19, made the domestic tourism industry sector again have to be patient, wait and see in the middle global economic uncertainties.

In addition to the travel restriction policy that was re-implemented by almost all countries, in Indonesia, large-scale social restrictions were also re-implemented in the country from 11 to 25 January 2021. This central government policy was prioritized in a number of areas on the island of Java and Bali, which in particular still had the status of the red zone.

Apart from the state of health and the national economy that has not yet improved, the central government continues to set its target of pursuing the development of infrastructure and infrastructure and structuring tourism areas. The Indonesian government is also targeting foreign tourist visits in 2021 to reach 4 to 7 million people. This target has been lowered previously, which reached 18 million foreign tourists.

President Joko Widodo asked the Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy, Sandiaga Uno to immediately pursue the development of five national priority tourist destinations, namely: Borobudur, Labuan Bajo, Likupang, Mandalika, Toba Lake. Indonesian Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing has budgeted an allocation of around IDR 3.51 trillion to build infrastructure.

The destination development program called the ‘5 New Bali’ is designed by the central government in Jakarta to anticipate conditions of increasing foreign tourist visits before the global pandemic began to plague Indonesia on March 2, 2020. There are criticisms related to accelerating tourism infrastructure development that should not be a top priority for the central government in Indonesia amid the spread of a pandemic that still cannot be controlled in domestic tourist destinations.

Even though the tourism industry entrepreneurs and tourism sector workers are getting worse and more in need of social and financial assistance from the government to survive amid the outbreak of the pandemic.

In the midst of a limited budget, the government needs to determine priorities and emphasize a sense of crisis.

The realistic target is to maximize the stimulus and incentive budgets for the industry as well as the distribution of cash transfers for tourism sector workers.

Based on Indonesian Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy data, the national tourism sector absorbs 13 million workers in 2019 or 10.28 percent of the national workforce. So far, the social assistance schemes for workers are general in nature and are equalized for all sectors, not yet specific to each sector. Indonesian Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy plans to expand the provision of direct cash assistance specifically for the tourism sector and the creative economy will soon be realized. Likewise, the provision of grants for tourism industry entrepreneurs must be evaluated and expanded to make them more effective, targeted, and efficient.

The central government and national tourism stakeholders face a difficult dilemma. The government must be faced with a choice between survival and adaptation, economic recovery, or building infrastructure and infrastructure. The position of survival and adaptation must be the top priority while being serious about suppressing the spread of the virus and holding massive vaccinations. Hopefully, gradually, the recovery of the tourism sector can be carried out in line with the pandemic control which should be kept to a minimum.

The infrastructure development project is likely to be the final stage after the tourism sector begins to recover and requires gradual reform. It is believed that the results of the construction of a large-scale tourist destination can only be enjoyed after five to ten years. The presence or absence of a massive infrastructure project does not have a direct impact on the millions of people who are now having difficulty making a living.

In Indonesia, until now, COVID-19 pandemic has presented tough test, particularly in choosing which priorities to take for policy-makers and the best benefit for entire nation.

WHO’S DRONES UNDER INDONESIAN WATERS
Source: http://english.sia.cas.cn, 21 July 2017

Writer: Hendra Manurung is currently a doctoral candidate in international relations at Padjadjaran University, Bandung, West Java

In early January 2021, the Indonesian public was greatly shocked by the discovery of an underwater drone caught by fishermen by late December 2020, off the coast of the Selayar Islands, South Sulawesi.

The initial discovery of the drone was caught by local fishermen at Masalembu Madura on 20 December 2020 which was equipped with a surveillance camera and had Chinese characters (Kompas, January 5, 2020). Previously on March 3, 2019, also found a drone with Chinese characters and clearly written Shenyang Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Recently in 2018 (https://sputniknews.com, 2 August 2018), Shenyang Institute of Automation of Chinese Academy of Sciences or known as CAS, recently completed test flights of Xiangying-200 unmanned helicopter and it has now entered its acceptance stage. Xiangying-200 was jointly developed by Shenyang Institute of Automation and several units of CAS. It’s 8.7 meters long, 2.5 meters high, and can carry a payload of 150 to 200 kg. The key components such as the control system, power system, and transmission system are all domestically developed. It indicates that the independent research and development ability of China’s large unmanned helicopter has been further improved.

However, the shocking news was only widely discussed by the Indonesian public in early 2021. The drone with a series of sensors on its nose has a length of 2.25 meters the length of the two wings is 50 cm, the length of the rear antenna is 93 cm, while the body structure is made of aluminum with weighs 175 kilograms (Kompas, 5 January 2020).

During peacetime, a sea-glider is a small drone operated by the manufacturing country with the aim of being able to operate under the depths of the sea, and is useful for collecting marine data for the national interest by the decision-makers of the making countries. This underwater drone is equipped with sophisticated sensor instruments to monitor temperature, salinity, ocean current velocity, and various other marine conditions.

Further, the discovery of the drone in the form of a sea-glider is currently being examined by the Indonesian Navy. It is likely that a thorough investigation process will take at least a week to a month. A number of cases of finding underwater drones or sea-gliders in Indonesia since 2019 should never be underestimated and must be investigated comprehensively, and opened as widely as possible to the Indonesian public, who and which countries actually own the underwater drones. At least, there are three cases of findings of underwater drones or sea-gliders in Indonesia, namely: 1) Tenggel Island, Bintan Region (3 March 2019). At drone found Chinese characters written Shenyang Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences; 2) Masalembu, Madura (20 January 2020). Found things like drones equipped with camera and Chinese characters; 3) Selayar waters, South Sulawesi (26 December 2020). A fisherman found a sea-glider. Indonesian Navy has not found any characters of the characteristics of the writing originating from the country of manufacture.

From now on, the Indonesian government must never be afraid of China’s expansive ambitions to control and dominate the South China Sea territories. To the last drop of blood, the Indonesian nation supports the sovereignty of Indonesia’s territorial territories.

Obviously, the location of the discovery of a number of cases of an underwater drone or sea-glider findings in Indonesia over the last two years is precisely in the location of a trade prone route in the South China Sea.

A domestically developed underwater glider set a new world record by reaching a depth of 6,329 meters, breaking the previous record of 6,003 meters held by a U.S. vessel, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Furthermore, this underwater glider drone named Haiyi, which means sea wings in Chinese language (海逸), went underwater aboard the deep-sea submersible mother ship Tansuo-1 (坦索1) during a mission in the Mariana Trench in early July 2017.

Although oceans cover about 71 percent of the Earth, many parts, especially deep-sea areas, are still unexplored. By reaching 6,000 meters, Haiyi allows Chinese scientists to explore 97 percent of the maritime territories.

Haiyi, developed by the Shenyang Institute of Automation under CAS, is used in monitoring vast areas of the deep-sea environment, such as seawater temperature, salinity, turbidity, chlorophyll, and oxygen content.

During the recent mission, Haiyi dived down 12 times and traveled about 130 kilometers, collecting high-resolution data for scientific research.

The underwater glider, which carries lots of detectors, has a simple cylindrical body, with two small wings making it look like a small plane, and a long tail, plus an antenna to send signals to drone country-maker.

Different from other underwater robots, the glider does not have a propeller but uses a different method to move in the water. In its body, there is an oil bag that works like a fish bladder and a moveable battery.

The glider also has a special coat made of light carbon fiber material to protect it from the huge pressure in the deep sea. When it glides down to 6,000 meters, the pressure could reach 60 MPa, which is similar to holding 60-tons of weight on your palm.

Based on China Daily, in Oct 2014, Haiyi swam 1,022.5 kilometers nonstop in 30 days during a test, setting a record in China for the longest time and distance covered by an underwater glider.

The underwater drone found in Indonesia is similar to a missile and is a type of sea-glider. This object is made of aluminum along 2.2 meters with two wings and a 93-centimeter long antenna. There is also an instrument similar to a surveillance camera on the body of the tool.

From 2018 to 2021, the escalation of tensions in the South China Sea is still happening, triggered by rivalry and friction in the ambition of expanding the interests of China VS the United States.

These Sea-gliders are usually used by the producing countries for the benefit of the underwater research of the producing countries. This underwater drone can dive to a depth of 2,000 meters. In the sea, this type of drone can record data on temperature, salinity, and direction of seawater currents, oxygen levels, sea fertility, and the sound of fish. The data collected is then sent via satellite when this underwater drone appears above sea level. The device is estimated to be able to withstand deep-sea surveillance operations for up to two years or seven hundred and thirty days.

These underwater drones are widely used to search underwater oceanographic data and are also used for various national interests of producing countries, both for industrial purposes and strategic military interests.

For industrial purposes, underwater drones can be used for various offshore drilling activities to search for marine resources.

Meanwhile, for strategic military defense purposes, this underwater drone is operationalized in finding water depth points and detecting seawater concentrations, thus, submarine operations cannot be easily detected by sensors of warships above sea level.

This unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) is indeed included in the category of underwater research tools. UUV was found in a non-functioning condition, but it has not expired. There are internal technical obstacles in this underwater drone operational system.

It is estimated that the UUV already has an operational dive time of more than 25,000 hours or close to three years or 995 days. Most likely this underwater drone began operating in November 2017.

Never underestimate the case found in Selayar Islands, which are most likely the underwater drones produced by the bamboo curtain country. This type of underwater drone can be categorized as an unmanned underwater vehicle.

Until now there has been no official statement from the country that makes underwater drones that have been found to be in Indonesian territorial waters. It is particularly related to the aims and objectives desired by country maker production.

Obviously, the deliberate use of underwater drones in the territorial waters of other countries is categorized as an instrument to support spying and intelligence activities.

In fact, in the world of modern intelligence, various tactical and strategic instruments are deliberately used to operate in silence without arousing the suspicion of other countries. All attributes relating to certain country affiliations are intentionally omitted. The goal is not to be exposed and not easily accused by other countries when the instrument has been discovered.

If the state being spied on is an intelligence agent from a certain country that is carrying out intelligence operations, the sending country will never acknowledge the intelligence operational activities in order to maintain good relations between governments.

Indonesian public is eagerly very much waiting for the findings by the Indonesian Navy on the operation of foreign countries’ underwater drones. Indonesia must continue to strengthen national defense and improve the quality of the sea, air, and land defense.

The Indonesian government must be vigilant and ready to respond to the intelligence activities of major countries that deliberately carry out spying operations in the South China Sea area which must be responded to and anticipated.

In the midst of the spread of a new variant of the COVID-19 outbreak, in observing the dynamics of international relations in the South China Sea, it is necessary to become a concern and a policy priority by Indonesia that ‘Lupus est homo homini, non homo, quom qualis sit non novit’ or known as ‘homo homini lupus’ (drama entitled Asinaria by Titus Maccius Plautus, 254-184 BC), is real. Where, humans (country) are not humans (countries), but wolves for others, who are ready to prey on and rule at any time.

Neither friend nor foe lasts longer than the achievement of ambitions and interests in the international system.

EU VACCINATION 2020
Source: https://ec.europa.eu/

Writer: Hendra Manurung is currently a doctoral candidate in international relations at Padjadjaran University, Bandung, West Java

EU countries simultaneously initiate COVID-19 vaccination for their citizens from 27 to 29 December 2020. The push for mass vaccination has become even more urgent as the spread of cases of the global outbreak is due to the discovery of a new variant of the COVID-19 virus which originated in England a week before Christmas celebrations.

Therefore, through contextual phenomenon currently happens in the blue continent, most European countries are working to ensure that there will be access to safe vaccines across Europe, and encourages a coordinated approach of vaccination strategies for deployment of the vaccines.

The European Union has secured almost 2 billion doses of potential vaccine through six advance purchase agreements (APAs) for promising vaccine candidates, i.e.: 1) AstraZaneca: 300+100 million doses; 2) Sanofi-GSK: 300 million doses; 3) Janssen P.NV: 200+200 million doses; 4) BioNTech-Pfizer: 200+100 million doses; 5) CureVac: 225+180 million doses; 6) Moderna: 80+80 million doses (https://www.consilium.europa.eu).

Moreover, in line with the 17 June 2020 EU Vaccines Strategy, the European Commission and the Member States are securing the production of vaccines against COVID-19 through Advance Purchase Agreements with vaccine producers in Europe. Any vaccine will need to be authorized optimally by the European Medicine Agency according to regular safety and efficacy standards. Thus, all EU member states should start preparing a common vaccination strategy for vaccine deployment.

Previously, since the end of June 2020, some European Union countries have coordinated with global pharmaceutical companies to secure safe and effective vaccination for their citizens. These pharmaceutical companies have begun to apply for authorization to the European Medicines Agency (EMA), a condition they have to meet in order to deploy their vaccines on the EU’s market.  If EMA’s opinion is positive, vaccination could start just a few weeks ahead.

Thereafter, AstraZeneca as an international pharmaceutical company has a special condition with an ability to sell more in millions of doses optionally and guarantee the quantity of vaccine secured in million doses to the EU countries.

Further, a mass vaccination program began rolling out across the European Union (EU) affected COVID-19 countries on 27 December 2020 after several countries reported cases of a more contagious variant of the coronavirus. Thus, initial vaccination is given to health workers and those most at risk of contracting the disease. Most Western European and Southern European countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain have started injections in a campaign dubbed Vaccine Day or known as ‘V-Day:

Germany started its first vaccination campaign on 26 December 2020 and prioritized a small number of people in nursing homes inoculated at nursing homes in the city of Halberstadt. The German federal government plans to distribute more than 1.3 million doses of the vaccine to local health authorities starting at the end of December 2020.

Berlin plans to distribute more than 1.3 million doses by the end of 2020, and around 700 thousand doses per week starting January 2021. The COVID-19 vaccination program in Germany is free and can be implemented by every citizen starting mid-2021 once priority groups obtain it.

Hungary and Slovakia followed Germany and started vaccinating people on Saturday, 26/12/2020, a day before the vaccination launch announced by the EU.

Also, France started giving vaccines on Sunday, 27 December 2020. The country’s Ministry of Health declared that it had ordered nearly 68 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine from the EU. Related shipments will be made in the period of December 2020 and July 2021.

The first cases of a new variant of the coronavirus found in Britain were, according to British authorities, 70 percent more contagious. The Covid-19 mutation variant was detected in France, Ireland, and Sweden over the weekend. Fear of the new variant led Chinese aviation regulators to suspend flights to and from the UK on Sunday, 27/12/2020, until at least it lasts until January 10, 2021.

More than 40 countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, and Japan have also imposed travel restrictions from the UK. BioNTech believes that the coronavirus vaccine is expected to work against the new variant of the COVID-19 virus from the UK. But the German company says further studies are needed to fully confirm the efficacy of the vaccine it produces.

The UK government declares that it has allocated more than US$ 700 million (IDR 9.9 trillion) to ensure that lower-middle-income countries can vaccinate the continent’s most vulnerable populations.

Zimbabwe is one of the African countries that has received an offer from the British government to vaccinate 20 percent of Zimbabweans to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic (Herald, 24/12/2020). That 20 percent figure for COVID-19 vaccine assistance will cover the 3 million most vulnerable people in the country.

The Zimbabwean government plans to immediately prioritize vaccinations for frontline health workers and other vulnerable groups such as the elderly.

Zimbabwe is on the right track to becoming one of the African countries that will benefit from the international community regarding the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine aid.

The EU’s regional vaccination campaign is coordinated on a scale unprecedented on the European continent. This step is considered important and a top priority for EU leaders and policy-makers, particularly in controlling the spread of the global pandemic, because it is given to around 450 million people in the EU. In Italy, the first dose of a vaccine developed by the United States drug-maker Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech.

Unfortunately, as of the last week of December 2020, Italy had recorded the highest death toll in Europe with 72,000, and it still has a long way to go to contain and limit the spread of the virus. A total of 9750 doses of the vaccine, which passed European regulations, have arrived in the country, which has an iconic Colosseum tourist destination. Italian Ministry of Health said that so far the dose was distributed in 20 regions.

Totally and still counting, these 27 EU countries have recorded nearly 16 million coronavirus infections and more than 353,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data. More than 1.7 million people have died worldwide. Each decision-maker in EU countries is sure to make their own decisions about who should get the first injection. Most EU leaders pledged to prioritize vaccines for the elderly and residents in nursing homes.

It is targeted that all adult citizens in EU countries will be vaccinated during 2021.

Outside the EU countries, a number of countries have also implemented mass vaccinations, including China, Russia, Canada, the US, Switzerland, Serbia, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Mexico, Chile, and Costa Rica.

Meanwhile, the world is still currently competing to develop a Covid-19 vaccine, in which China has promised its neighboring countries in Southeast Asia to be at the forefront of meeting the need for vaccine availability after the development of vaccines in their country is ready for distribution.

A number of countries from Malaysia, the Philippines, to several countries in Africa, have been given priority access to the Chinese coronavirus vaccine. Chinese companies have also signed agreements with some of these developing countries to test and produce coronavirus vaccines. However, China’s aid has drawn many questions from world health experts that it is a diplomatic approach that can pressure other countries, particularly to support Beijing’s commercial and political interests under President Xi Jinping leadership.

It is concluded, as worldwide countries learn to live with the pandemic, the development and swift global deployment of safe and effective vaccines against COVID-19 remains an essential element in the eventual solution to overcome the current national public health crisis sooner or later.

‘Hope for the best and prepare for the worst’ by Roger L’Estrange (Seneca’s Morals, 1702).

RUSSIA INTEREST IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT
https://www.bbc.com, 6/10/2020

Writer: Hendra Manurung is a doctoral candidate in international relations at Padjadjaran University, Bandung, West Java

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a territorial dispute and is also can be categorized as an ethnic conflict involving Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. It is de facto ruled by the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic but is internationally recognized as part of the territory of Azerbaijan.

The Caucasus is a mountainous region of strategic importance in Southeastern Europe. Over the centuries various forces in the region, both orthodox Christians and Muslims, have competed for control there. Modern Armenia and Azerbaijan were part of the Soviet Union when it was formed in the 1920s. Nagorno-Karabakh is an ethnic Armenian majority area, but the Soviets gave control of the territory to the Azerbaijani authorities.

https://www.bbc.com, 10/11/2020

Historically, on February 20, 1988, the Council of Deputies of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAO), predominantly populated by Armenians, appealed to the leadership of the USSR (in Moscow), Armenian SSR, and Azerbaijan SSR with a request to transfer Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia (Kommersant.ru, 27/9/2020). The Politburo of the CPSU Central Committee refused, which led to mass protests in Yerevan and Stepanakert, as well as to pogroms among both the Armenian and Azerbaijani population.

However, in December 1989, the authorities of the Armenian SSR and NKAO signed a joint decree on the inclusion of the region in Armenia, to which Azerbaijan responded with artillery shelling of the Karabakh border. In January 1990, the Supreme Soviet of the USSR declared a state of emergency in the conflict zone.

It was only after the Soviet Union began to collapse in the late 1980s that the regional parliament in Nagorno-Karabakh formally elected to join Armenia.

Azerbaijan government, meanwhile, at that time tried to suppress the movement that wanted Nagorno-Karabakh to become part of Armenia. On the other hand, Armenia supports the group. This split situation eventually led to widespread inter-ethnic clashes. After Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence at the end of the 1980s from the Soviet Union, an open war just broke out between the two countries.

In the late 1980s, both Armenia and Azerbaijan spun loose from Moscow’s yoke. Amid the chaos of the Soviet collapse, the ethnically Armenian Karabakh region attempted to break from Azerbaijani control. The ensuing war cost more than 30,000 lives and millions of people flee from their home-town.

During a virtual National Webinar held by AlMuslim University, Bireun Aceh on December 22, 2020 (Tuesday), with the theme: ‘Azerbaijan and Armenia Conflict: Political Development, Policy Priorities, and Choice for Peace’, Mr. Fauzi, Head of International Relations Department, started the event by conveying the need for a sustainable peace process by Azerbaijan and Armenia government in Central Asia.

While, Hendra Manurung stated that, the major hotspot of the dispute located in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which Azerbaijan claims as to their national sovereign territory, has so far been controlled and monitored by separatist ethnic Armenians. These two countries were involved in bloody wars in the late 1980s and early 1990s (1988-1994). Up to the first week of November 2020, open conflict still has continued to spark a continuous armed war.

This inter-state conflict should be localized by Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia without involving other regional major power interventions such as Turkey, France, and Iran. It is also confirmed by Adri Patria.

Further, in late April to early May 1991, Operation Ring was carried out in NKAO by the forces of Azerbaijan OMON and USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs troops. Within three weeks, the Armenian population of 24 Karabakh villages was deported. It is more than 100 people were killed. The forces of the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Soviet army carried out actions to disarm the participants in the clashes until August 1991, when a putsch began in Moscow, which led to the collapse of the USSR.

On September 2, 1991, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was proclaimed in Stepanakert. Baku’s Official government recognized this act as illegal. During the outbreak of the war between Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Armenia supporting it, the sides lost from 15 thousand to 25 thousand people killed, more than 25 thousand were injured, hundreds of thousands of civilians left their places of residence. From April to November 1993, the UN Security Council adopted four resolutions demanding a ceasefire in the region.

Tens of thousands of people died in open warfare. About one million people were forced to flee. The two sides are suspected of committing genocide and ethnic cleansing. Most of the refugees in the war were Azerbaijanis.

The Armenian army controlled Nagorno-Karabakh before a Russian-mediated ceasefire was agreed upon in 1994. After the deal, Nagorno-Karabakh remained part of Azerbaijan. However, the territory was controlled by Armenian separatists who declared a separate and autonomous republic. The Armenian government in Yerevan has publicly supported the Nagorno-Karabakh declaration of independence. The ceasefire agreement also contained the Nagorno-Karabakh Contact Line. Its aim was to separate the Armenian and Azerbaijani forces.

On May 5, 1994, the three parties signed an armistice agreement, as a result of which Azerbaijan actually lost control over Nagorno-Karabakh. While Baku official government still considers the region to be occupied territory.

Nagorno-Karabakh region is part of Azerbaijan, but the majority of the region’s population has an Armenian ethnic background. But when some members of the Soviet Union challenged their independence in the 1980s, Nagorno-Karabakh citizens also chose to join Armenia. This decision sparked a conflict that only ended with a ceasefire in 1994. At the end of the conflict, Nagorno-Karabakh remained part of Azerbaijan but was controlled by ethnic Armenian separatists supported by the Armenian government.

Since the ceasefire peace talks have been continuously explored by the Minsk Group’s Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). It is a body formed in 1992, chaired by France, Russia, and the United States.

As consequence, peace negotiations initiated and mediated by influential countries in the world in the Minsk group such as France, Russia, and the US also failed to be agreed upon amongst conflicting countries.

The conflict was further complicated by the regional geopolitical situation. NATO member state Turkey was the first country to recognize Azerbaijan’s independence in 1991.

Armenia is a predominantly Orthodox Christian country. Meanwhile, the biggest religion in Azerbaijan is Islam. Turkey has close relations with Azerbaijan, while Russia is allied with Armenia, although Russia also has good relations with Azerbaijan.

Obviously, bloody clashes continued. Serious upheaval in 2016 killed dozens of soldiers, both Armenian and Azerbaijani.

Azeri Heydar Aliyev, former President of Turkey once described his country and Azerbaijan as “one nation-two countries”. Both countries have a culture and are inhabited by citizens of Turkish nationality. Turkey does not have official relations with Armenia. In 1993, Turkey closed its border with Armenia.

Therefore, Ankara’s policy is to show their full support for the Azerbaijan government during the war in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

So far, Armenia has been on good terms with Russia, where Russia has a military base in Armenia. The two countries are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) military alliance.

Russian President, Vladimir Putin, also has close ties with Azerbaijan. In 2018, there was a peaceful revolution in Armenia when the regime led by Serzh Sargsyan collapsed. The leader of the pro-revolution group, Nikol Pashinyan, was elected Prime Minister of Armenia after the 2018 elections. Pashinyan then agreed with the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, to reduce the escalation of tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. They created the first military contact center which was planned to bridge the differences in the interests of the two countries.

In 2019, Armenia and Azerbaijan jointly stated the need to take concrete steps to prepare the population for peace. However this year, for several months tensions between the two countries have increased. There was also intense armed fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. It is not clear who started the conflict last July. The events of that month took casualties on both sides. The battles for Armenia and Azerbaijan ended this November when they agreed to sign a peace deal that was mediated by Russia.

Based on that document, Azerbaijan will defend some of the areas it controlled during the conflict. As for Armenia, it will withdraw troops from several areas adjacent to the region.

The most serious clashes since July 2020 took place in the zone of the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation on September 27. Azerbaijani Defense Ministry stated that the Armenian armed forces fired at the positions of the Azerbaijani army “along the entire front line”. In response, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the Azerbaijani military had launched the attack.

Furthermore, on 10 November 2020, a peace agreement was concluded by Armenia and Azerbaijan, mediated by Russian President, Vladimir Putin. These two countries are splits of the Soviet Union which during the last few months were involved in military disputes, from July to early November 2020. The war has killed thousands of people, forced thousands of others to flee, and lost personal property such as houses and apartments.

On that date, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, and President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin stated that A complete ceasefire and termination of all hostilities in the area of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is declared.

Post peace deal agreement signing on November 10, 2020, Kremlin decides that the Russian government will deploy its peacemaking forces, consist of 1,960 troops armed with firearms, 90 armored vehicles, and 380 motor vehicles and units of special equipment, shall be deployed along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin Corridor.

As agreed by Azerbaijan and Armenia, thus, within the next three years, a constructive plan will be outlined for the construction of a new route via the Lachin Corridor, to provide a connection between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, and the Russian peacemaking forces shall be subsequently relocated to protect the route.

Sooner or later, Russian peacemaking forces will be deployed concurrently with the withdrawal of the Armenian troops. The peacemaking forces of the Russian Federation will be deployed for five years, a term to be automatically extended for subsequent five-year terms unless either Party notifies about its intention to terminate this clause six months before the expiration of the current term.

It will be followed with more efficient monitoring of the Parties’ fulfillment of the Agreements such a Peacemaking Center will be established to oversee the ceasefire process.

It is concluded, the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is a throwback to the death-throes of the Soviet Union.

In South Caucasus, for 32 years, Russia secured a truce but unfortunately failed to secure the regional peace and stability, which is well-known as Russian ‘backyard’ geopolitics interest in Central Asia and Southeast Europe.

RESETTING EU – US RELATIONS?

Writer: Muhadi Sugiono, UGM

The post-presidential election drama continues in the US. Despite the confirmation by the Electoral College of Joe Biden’s victory, Donald Trump remains reluctant to admit his defeat. Instead of congratulating the winner, Trump keeps on contesting the election result. Undeterred by the failure of his previous legal battle with the rejection of his lawsuit by the Supreme Court, he continues to contest the election result by filing a new lawsuit.

The world is watching the development in the US very carefully. The EU is no exception. Who will be the US president is particularly important for the EU. EU – US relations are at the lowest ebb under Trump’s administration. No doubt, the relations between the EU and the US were not always very smooth. But, the previous US presidents kept on treating the EU with respect or saw the EU as an important and valuable partner. Donald Trump, on the other hand, tended to disregard the EU. He looked at the EU with disdain and did not see it as relevant for the US. For the EU, therefore, the next US president will determine whether the relationship between the EU and the US will improve or otherwise worsen.

“I think the European Union is a foe, what they do to us in trade.” (CBC News)

The election of Joe Biden as the US President undoubtedly gives new hope for the EU to improve its relations with the US. The new President constitutes an opportunity for the EU to reset its transatlantic relations. But, a daunting task lies ahead given the damages that Trump’s administration has done to transatlantic relations.

One of the most important characters in Trump’s administration has been the distrust of multilateralism. The distrust of multilateralism had significant impacts on international cooperation such as setbacks in the free trade agreements, in the climate change negotiation as well as in the combating of global pandemic Covid-19. Trump’s tendency towards unilateralism was also manifested in his direct confrontational stands against China and the questioning of the transatlantic alliance (NATO). At the same time, the populism of President Trump has led to the adoption of various polarising policies. Trump disrespected women and minorities, was tolerant of the authoritarian governments and had no interest in combating global poverty and in development. In addition, Trump’s response to Brexit was a big disappointment for the EU. While the EU and the UK were in the negotiating process to settle the consequences of Brexit, Trump without considering that the UK was during this process still an EU member and was tied to obligations as a member, expressed his willingness to conclude trade bilateral agreement with the UK. Trump expressed this willingness even before he was inaugurated as the US President.

All those characteristics which the US under Trump has brought about are in contradiction to the EU vision as reflected in the EU Global Strategy. The EU Global Strategy envisions a multilateral world order based on rule of law, common values, and interests. As such, the EU Global Strategy does not only reflect the EU’s core interest and principles but also guides the EU in relations to the wider world.

Resetting the transatlantic relations for the EU does not only mean to repair the damaged transatlantic relations but also to bring back the commitment of the US as an important EU partner in building a world based on multilateralism and global interest and norms. In addition, it becomes an urgent need for the EU as Europe is facing a more challenging security environment with the more confident Russia under Putin, uncertainty on Turkey as well as continuing threat of terrorism as a result of the conflicts in the region close to Europe.

But while it has been almost certain that Joe Biden will be the next US president, the reset button cannot work properly until the election drama ends.

INDONESIA-VIETNAM RELATIONS: CHALLENGE TO SE ASIA STABILITY
Indonesian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Retno L.P Marsudi met Vietnam Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pham Binh Minh (Dec.23, 2019) Source: kemlu.go.id

Writer: Hendra Manurung is currently doctor candidate in international relations at Padjadjaran University, Bandung, West Java

During the Cold War era which involves the Soviet Union and the United States, Indonesia and Vietnam officially established diplomatic relations on 30 December 1955 with the opening of the Indonesian Consulate in Hanoi which was later upgraded to the Embassy on 10 August 1964.

President Ho Chi Minh and President Soekarno are two leaders who have laid the foundations for friendly relations between Vietnam and Indonesia. In its 65-year history, this relationship has been maintained and developed by generations of leaders and the people of the two countries to this day. In the midst of the rivalry between the US and China in the South China Sea region, the two countries in Southeast Asia need to continuously optimize efforts to maintain and develop strategic relations in the region.

Indonesia’s relations with Vietnam began in 1955. At that time, Mr. Soedibjo Wirjowerdojo is the first Consul General of the Republic of Indonesia who was appointed and assigned a diplomatic tour of duty to occupy a pioneering representative post at the Consulate General of the Republic of Indonesia for Vietnam which is still domiciled in Hanoi.

Vietnam and Indonesia are members of ASEAN. Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri visited Vietnam in June 2003. At this time the two countries signed a “Declaration on a Framework for Friendly and Comprehensive Cooperation Entering the 21st Century”.

In May 2005, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono visited Hanoi, Vietnam. And in December of the same year celebrations were held in the respective capitals to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

In April 2015, the Prime Minister of Vietnam, Truong Tang San expressed his appreciation to the Indonesian government for organizing the 60th Asia Africa Summit Leaders Meeting. It is due to the political and economic benefits that were not only felt by the Asia Africa region but also experienced by the international community.

Vietnam hopes to increase and strengthen defense cooperation with Indonesia, especially in the provision of joint military training, transfer of military technology, and joint marine patrols.

Regarding maritime issues, Vietnam is optimistic about the prospect of negotiations with Indonesia. It is ensured that through continuous negotiations regarding maritime borders between the two countries so far has been going well, and will reach an agreement that affirms each other’s territorial sovereignty.

Meanwhile, President Joko Widodo conveyed Indonesia’s commitment in overcoming the problem of illegal fishing, that this problem is a joint problem between Indonesia and Vietnam that must be resolved immediately.

Further, in October 2018, Indonesia and Vietnam also agreed to strengthen cooperation on economy, trade, and investment. Indonesia and Vietnam have intensified their bilateral cooperation in recent times. This reflects the high intensity of bilateral relations based on the Strategic Partnership of Indonesia and Vietnam in the Southeast Asia region, increasing bilateral trade, strengthening cooperation in a number of other fields such as negotiations on the exclusive economic zones of each country, eradicating illegal fishing, and cooperation to advance ASEAN, and enhance cooperation in both countries maritime sectors.

Jakarta appreciates the assistance of the Vietnamese government for barriers to Indonesia’s automotive exports to Vietnam.

Indonesian entrepreneurs should optimize new Vietnamese markets, particularly among others in relation to trade-economic cooperation of pharmaceutical products and medical devices.

In the next 10 to 20 years, the increasing bilateral economic trade and investment relations between the two countries will benefit both parties in the future.

Jakarta and Hanoi also emphasized their position on the importance of maintaining a conducive situation in the South China Sea region, amidst Beijing’s nine-dash line claims that did not respect the 1982 UNCLOS.

Thus, regarding the South China Sea issue, Indonesia is willing to act as an honest broker by adhering to the Declaration of Conduct (DoC) and Code of Conduct (CoC) initiated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

In 2020, Viet Nam and Indonesia will both become non-permanent members of the UN Security Council.

The two neighboring countries in Southeast Asia need to boost political economy cooperation as well as strengthen both contributions to stability and peace in the region and globally, especially in response to the escalation of tensions related to the possibility of open conflict in the South China Sea region involving the US and China in the near future.

Furthermore, these two countries are strategic partners and agree to continue to push for the implementation of the Plan of Action for the period from 2019 to 2023, especially economic cooperation, increase bilateral trade, investment, progress in the field of air-connectivity, and finalize Exclusive Economic Zone negotiations.

Meanwhile, Indonesia supports ASEAN as a regional organization present in Southeast Asia to continue to advance the issue of women’s rights, peace, security, and the latest developments Rakhine State as one of the priorities for Vietnam’s chairmanship in 2020.

ASEAN needs to increase its role in helping solve the Rakhine State problem, including accelerating the repatriation process of refugees from Bangladesh in a voluntary, safe, and dignified manner. Both welcomed the involvement of ASEAN representatives in the Second High-Level Visit, from 17 to 20 December 2020 at Cox’s Bazaar.

It is also necessary to prioritize the review of the terms of reference of the ASEAN Inter-Governmental Commission on Human Rights to achieve a balanced mandate between the promotion and protection of human rights in the region.

Apart from the importance of continuing ASEAN and Chinese negotiations regarding the progress of the Code of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (COC), which in 2020 will continue a second reading. The two countries agreed to emphasize that the COC must be substantive, effective, and implementable to create an area that is conducive to territorial dispute resolution.

To conclude, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, this strategic partnership relationship between Vietnam and Indonesia must be maintained and it is ensured that it will develop faster and stronger for the sake of the national interests of the two countries, as well as maintaining regional peace, stability, and prosperity in the Southeast Asia and the South China Sea regions.

INDONESIA SOFT POWER: TOBA CALDERA AS UNESCO GLOBAL GEOPARK 2020

Writer: 1. Hendra Manurung, 2. Elvinro Sinabariba

1. International Relations, Padjadjaran University

2. State Senior High School Number 1 Pangururan, Samosir

1. hendra19001@mail.unpad.ac.id,

2. elvinrosnb@yahoo.co.id

Abstract: This research aims to describe analytically Toba Caldera’s ability to become one of the UNESCO Global Geopark in 2020. The research used a qualitative research method and is done through literature studies, government documents, and internet sources. Researchers founded, there are inter-linkages amongst Indonesia’s central and local government together with stakeholders’ continuous contribution who concern with Toba Caldera’s sustainable tourism development. Those concerning parties fought for Toba Caldera’s recognition status as the UNESCO Global Geopark. From 2011 to 2020, for nine years, the Toba Caldera was finally named a UNESCO Global Geopark during the UN Cultural Body’s 209th Plenary Session held in Paris on July 7, 2020. Toba Caldera Geopark was a worldwide tourist magnet as it was home to 13 sites with breathtaking views, namely: Tongging Sipiso-Piso, Silalahi Sabungan, Haranggaol, Sibaganding Parapat, Eden Park, Balige Liong Spige Meat, Situmurun Blok Uluan, Hutaginjang, Muara Sibandang, Sipinsur Bakti Raja, Bakara Tipang, Tele Pangururan, and Pusuk Buhit. A ceremony where the UNESCO Global Geopark placard will be formally given to the Toba caldera is slated to be held in Jeju, South Korea, by September 2020. According to a statement from the Indonesian Embassy in Paris, Toba Caldera is among the 16 new UNESCO Global Geoparks announced by the organization’s executive board. North Sumatra provincial administration is hopeful that the recognition will help boost foreign tourist arrivals to the destination.

Keywords: Toba caldera, UNESCO, Indonesia soft power, sustainable tourism development, tourist destination

Download the full version of the articles at this link: 2140-Article Text-8475-1-10-20201208

Indonesia-North Korea Diplomatic Relations: Effort to Pursue National Interest and Create Regional Peace

Indonesia-North Korea Diplomatic Relations: Effort to Pursue National Interest and Create Regional Peace

Writer: Hendra Manurung Mahasiswa Doktoral Hubungan Internasional, Universitas Padjajaran email: hendra19001@mail.unpad.ac.id

Direvisi: 14 Agustus 2020 Disetujui: 15 September 2020 doi: 10.22212/jp.v11i2.1466

Abstract: This article aims to analyze the implementation of Indonesia’s foreign policy towards North Korea over its approximately fifty-nine years of bilateral relations, since 17 June 1961. The arguments posited in this regard is that the implementation of Indonesia’s foreign policy towards North Korea has been counterproductive. Under the leadership of President Joko Widodo, Indonesia actually has great potential to influence North Korea’s conducts through the close diplomatic relations that the two countries have developed. The friendship between Indonesia and North Korea began since the two states conducted reciprocal official visits 1964 and 1965. Indonesia’s foreign policy towards South Korea has often been carried out to influence the offensive decisions of North Korean leaders, especially in relation to the issue of nuclear weapon development. The key question is what should and can Indonesia do next to help create peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula by adhering to the principles of a free and active foreign policy? Why is it necessary for Indonesia to do this and how can Indonesia carry out this foreign policy towards North Korea? After becoming President since 2011, Kim Jong-un had to weaken his father’s winning coalition to consolidate domestic political stability. However, North Korea’s domestic market reforms have had the effect of eroding the Kim family’s ideological appeal. This is relevant to the expansion of political influence from Pyongyang, which prioritizes the continuation of a fragile centralized authoritarian power while maintaining sustainable domestic economic growth. Keywords: Indonesia; North Korea; Foreign Policy; Denuclearization; Regional Stability.

Hubungan Diplomatik Indonesia – Korea Utara: Upaya Mewujudkan Kepentingan Nasional dan Menciptakan Perdamaian Regional

Abstrak: Artikel ini bertujuan menjelaskan secara analitis bagaimana implementasi kebijakan luar negeri Indonesia terhadap Korea Utara selama 59 tahun sejak 17 Juni 1961. Argumen yang ingin disampaikan terkait implementasi kebijakan luar negeri Indonesia terhadap Korea Utara adalah kontraproduktif. Indonesia di bawah kepemimpinan Presiden Joko Widodo berpotensi besar untuk mampu memengaruhi perilaku Korea Utara melalui hubungan diplomatik. Persahabatan Indonesia dan Korea Utara dimulai sejak saling kunjung di 1964 dan 1965. Orientasi politik luar negeri Indonesia di masa lalu hingga saat ini, telah sering dilakukan untuk memengaruhi keputusan ofensif para pemimpin Korea Utara, khususnya terkait dengan isu pengembangan senjata nuklir. Pertanyaannya adalah apa yang harus dan sebaiknya dilakukan Indonesia selanjutnya untuk membantu menciptakan perdamaian dan stabilitas di Semenanjung Korea dengan tetap berpegang pada prinsip politik luar negeri bebas dan aktif? Mengapa hal tersebut perlu dilakukan oleh Indonesia dan bagaimana cara menjalankan kebijakan luar negeri terhadap Korea Utara tersebut? Kim Jong-un, setelah menjadi Presiden sejak 2011, harus melemahkan posisi koalisi pemenang ayahnya untuk konsolidasi stabilitas politik dalam negeri. Bagaimanapun, reformasi pasar domestik Korea Utara telah berdampak pada pengikisan daya tarik ideologis keluarga Kim. Hal ini relevan dengan perluasan pengaruh politik dari Pyongyang memprioritaskan pada keberlangsungan kekuatan otoriter terpusat yang rentan seiring bagaimana dapat mempertahankan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam negeri berkelanjutan. Kata kunci: Indonesia; Korea Utara; Kebijakan Luar Negeri; Denuklirisasi; Stabilitas Kawasan

Download the full version of this article in this link: 2020 Indonesia-North Korea Diplomatic Relations